I would think that this is going to settle down. Last March it seems it lasted about 3 weeks or so before we got the right bots blocked, thanks in large part to Netmeg, and Google also got a handle on things and earnings returned to normal. The word from Google then was deafening, as in there was none, but a Google rep did later confirm that the network had been under attack.

Reading some news stories -- it appears that Adwords and Adsense have been under attack.

Here's a link to one:
[itproportal.com...]

Excerpt: "Recent attacks have seen the AdSense network infected and Google Adwords manipulated by attackers, to create a new type of malvertising attack.

According to a blog by Sucuri senior malware researcher Denis Sinegubko, requests were made to the company to scan websites for malware as some randomly redirected to magazine websites, and in all cases, the symptoms were the same:

“Some users randomly got redirected when they clicked on links or loaded new pages,” Sinegubko said. “They all reported that the new page would show up for a second or two and then it would redirect them to those magazine websites.”

While some visitors regularly saw those redirects and even complained that the websites were barely usable because of them, Sucuri found that the redirect was due to third-party scripts, which looked quite plausible since all the websites ran third-party ads.


Google fighting these attacks could account for some of the strange action we have been seeing. Apparently they say they have been successful in fighting off the attacks.

Very interesting. My ad spaces then have been pretty much "free space" as it were. The ads might get clicked but in hopes of protecting the advertiser, nothing much has come through. Such is life as a bottom feeder. Seems a bit bizarre to just wipe earnings away. I can't bitch too much because I'm still making money. It's does seem a bit over the top though. I can imagine they were safe fighting off the attacks simply by clawing back payouts, etc.

If someone has been hijacking Adwords accounts, spending some unsuspecting advertisers' money and other advertisers get wind of it and think it could happen to them, too, then spooked advertisers stop spending money. To calm advertisers, Google has gone overboard and is taking back clicks and shaving epc. I'm actually glad they do that, at least until things settle down, or otherwise the entire system could collapse. No advertisers = no Adsense.

[edited by: ember at 12:44 am (utc) on Jan 21, 2015]

So the theory is that people are clicking on ads that are infected by malware. the click redirects those people to the bad guys' sites? I guess that would invalidate the original click, so the advertiser wouldn't be billed. But if that's the reason for what we've been seeing, why the heck not say something? If malware impacts the business model, even short-term, then the key players in that model should be notified. As publishers we should be in that loop. Thanks tidewatcher for sharing that.

why the heck not say something? If malware impacts the business model, even short-term, then the key players in that model should be notified. As publishers we should be in that loop.

1) Google does not talk to the little people.
2) Publishers are not really key players. The advertisers are what concern Google. Us, not so much.

For me the daily USA EPC ups and downs are extraordinary, I don't think I've seen anything like it in 11+ years, then again we didn't get such stats a few years ago.

Yesterday's US EPC was 128.5% of average, today's is 64.3%, overall this means that today's EPC is actually exactly 50% of Monday's. Remember, I am only looking at my USA metrics.

I find it incredulous that such a supposed bid market can vary this much...it's not what I would define as an "auction" BUT is that what AdWords pretends to be or is it being manipulated to their advantage, again, surprise, surprise.

As much as I have been "stuffed" by Google the past 3-4 years and now earning 3% of my best days, I'll give them the benefit of the doubt and assume there is "something" going on and they're having a battle.

Thank heavens I do not rely on this programme for a living, I would be dead!*!*!

1) Google does not talk to the little people.

This will inevitably be the downfall of Google.

Fingers crossed but last 2 days seem to be better again. Only about 10% of the clicks shaved and some big ones sticking. Especially the US rpm seems to be back on its feet. Adsense in a nutshell is a roller coaster ride with both frustrations and highs! Just like programming is to me.

Seeing a little preview image of the advertiser's website on text ads.

They could never get the picture right when they had a small image next to text so I guess they are showing a site preview image instead.

Draws you eye to the ad so works for me.

I don't like that preview image at all. Causing some horrible "broken" image previews on sites which have flash etc...

Draws you eye to the ad so works for me.

Many here will remember that a few years ago lots of publishers got banned from adsense because they were putting pictures next to ads and the adsense team said it led to too many false clicks

So its kind of ironic that lots of publishers today are complaining about all the 'false clicks' being removed from their account and also speculating on whether some kind of 'global smartpricing' (which is usually applied to an account for sending non-converting traffic to advertisers) is now being applied, at the same time that we welcome the little images next to the ads because they encourage clicks

You could almost wonder if these things are all related...

I gave up trying to figure out what Google does years ago. This will be the worst January in 9 years for me. Google is too big and too quiet. Transparency would be nice, but actually paying for clicks would be even better. I barely even bother to look at stats anymore. I tried analytics for a while, found it to be completely useless. Just glad I have other sources of revenue.

AdSense has been doing the same thing for coming up on a year now. Their revenue is in the toilet mostly because of smartphones. They are experimenting without a plan or no strategic way to interpret the data/results. They are running WAY too many tests at the same time. It's the worst testing plan I've ever seen. It's everything; ad format tests, ad delivery/contextual matching. It's a mess. A huge mess that is getting worse. They need to abort what they've done in the last year and I guarantee everyone (including Google) would be much happier with the results.

Strangely enough, but I am actually seeing an increase in unknown bot activities both in my Analytics and logs on 12 of my sites that are mostly hosted on the separate servers and dedicated IPs. At this point of time it is difficult for me to check what they are trying to do, but what is even more strange that every one of the bots that I am talking about are sitting on the index page on all sites for over 10 minutes without moving elsewhere. Also, some of them are actually covering themselves as is it was a visitor from Google with completely unrelated keywords and according to hitmaps, most of these bots are dark orange all around AdSense placements on all 12 sites.

I am beginning to believe that there something really is going on with the attacks that we all heard about. I have been monitoring this for just over 3 weeks starting from end of December. I have managed to block them all, but some of these bots are still appearing, but now with different IP, so I have to keep blocking them for now.

Would be interesting to see, if someone noticed this too.

Alex are you using Google Analytics to track these bots? If so, where in Analytics do you go to monitor them? Thanks,

Yes I am, Mostly referrals and also some strange keywords then comparing all this data to my logs.

Thanks Alex.

All bot activity that I've ever tracked has been direct traffic. I don't know of any bots coming in via search engines.

Bots now easily execute javascript, so it's no surprise that some will show up in Analytics.

I cannot confirm this yet, but after blocking most of the bots that I could find so far, my CPC in US £0.38 and RPM £16.68, CPC UK £0.58 and RPM £22.76 and CPC Germany £0.78 and RPM £70.96, CPC Canada £0.40 RPM £2.23 and at last Australia CPC £0.19 RPM £4.44.

I cannot confirm or deny that this is related to blocking bots or something else, the stats that I have posted are only for today and I do not know yet if they will stay like that, but for now I am a bit happier than I was before.

Yes CTR is WAY higher than normal today so far. And of course the CPC is much lower than regular. Not smartphone clicks either. Care to explain why this almost always happens Google? More clicks = lower CPC ?

Today (so far) and yesterday seem more like normal. A bit of click shaving, but it seems that the choppy seas have calmed somewhat, and the headwind has dropped.

Today things look back to normal but I don't know if it will last. I'm still doing well, but 2015 is all about diversification.

Yes numbers are better than yesterday so far. Ember diversification is the key. My next tool in the tool box will be a good CPM program.

Once again a very disappointing EPC from the USA yesterday and today's is looking even worse.

Slightly better CPC and RPM

Clawback seems to be less today.

Yes. Today the clicks seem to be increasing more slowly, and I haven't seen any clawbacks. It's like any checks that might be happening are being done before posting the data.

Also, placements ads in adsense seem to be making a reappearance (could well be that these advertisers had suspended campaigns or a new campaign began - so this is just speculation)

Seeing better quality brand ads and fewer of the diet / prison records / get rich type units.

Looking at countries, any clicks outside the states are less than a dime a click. Total junk.