How is it logically possible for 1) all 10 publishers to share a total of $10 that doesn't exist and 2) have the decline in Google's revenue not be among the factors that reduce revenue for the 9?

Maybe one publisher just took down all their sites. They still have an Adsense account but are not earning for themselves or for Google. Seems you want to blame some individual partner's woes on Google's (insignificant IMHO) seasonal decline in partner revenue share. Sorry, it just doesn't compute unless you factor in a great many other variables. I could easily flip your argument on it's head and say that Google is suffering because partner's aren't earning the way they should be. It's all the fault of the partner's. Or maybe Google is stealing money from partners or Google is purposefully sabotaging its own program. You can't blame any individual partner's problems on Google's bottom line and call it a day. You're looking at symptoms (or indicators) and calling them reasons for one another. That's the problem here.

Oh, and the last few days have been like a roller-coaster where CTR and CPC. Don't think it has anything to do with G's bottom line though.

You're looking at symptoms (or indicators) and calling them reasons for one another.

Its called intuition. A chess player doesn't need to analyse every piece of data before making his decision (unless he is a robot). Its like using the 'force'.

After taking in lots of data from lots of sources, a picture begins to build. Individuals who have not developed their intuition cannot see how this is possible.

By taking information from too many official sources (e.g. press releases) we can be social engineered into believing anything (like burning jet fuel can melt steel).

It is only a matter of time before A.I. will be able to produce enough garbage to keep the masses occupied and the old-time web publisher will become redundant. I will be making hay while the sun shines.

Its called intuition.

I think that says it all.

Its called intuition.

Well it's certainly not financial analysis.

A chess player doesn't need to analyse every piece of data before making his decision

Tell that to Bobby Fischer or Boris Spassky. Intuition is a good quality to have and at times it's all we have to go on and I recognize it in the premise as stated.

So, all that said. What good is having an intuition about, or leaping to the conclusion that a slight seasonal decrease in Google's bottom line is the reason any particular publisher is reporting loss of revenue?

My intuition says publishers (lots of them) are struggling to get the new ad formats to produce the way the old ones did, have lost traffic from the SERPs, or are in dying niches, etc. Just filling in a couple of dot's along the way from the initial premise to the initial conclusion. Note, I never said I disagreed with the conclusion, only that the premise (as stated) doesn't support it.

Today is absolutely abysmal, I haven't even reach £7 in earnings for the day. Three months ago I would have three times as much by now, absolutely crazy

I don't know what's happening right now. Since the last Panda update, my website was given credit for everything original I wrote, but yesterday traffic started to drop again, and when I check things in Google, all the scrapers are right up above me again!

Whoa! What happened Friday G?

Earnings, clicks, CTR and RPM down 50%, EPC down 33%, one of my worst-ever days.

The US and UK were nearly beaten by India. Twas either awful ads or data loss and I'm going for the second considering I've had the red bar at least 3 times in the last 2 days and whenever that happens my earnings are always down.

Yesterday was biggest day of the year for me. Today will be better.

I recovered a little bit better yesterday, not by an awful lot. However, the amount of clicks I received was probably over 30 below what I am receiving the last month, however the money was slightly up compared to the amount of clicks.

How do you guys check your website in Google? Just as a matter of interest. I use a program called rankerizer, seems to be fairly accurate

I use a program called {POS}, seems to be fairly accurate

The interface of that POS is unusable and the app itself is a teaser for a paid link building service. Really?

I don't check my rankings, but if I did I'd use SEMRush.

It would seem my month is well and truly over, normal traffic yet everything AdSense is down so far I may as well remove it altogether it's that bad.

All is good here.

Half an AdSense day and still 0% CTR for US and UK ... Unbelievable

I do not know what's going on.

But one thing I know.

June 2013 Averages cpc is 0.34 eur
June 2014 Averages cpc is 0.22 eur

What you have to say on this?

June 2013 Averages cpc is 0.34 eur
June 2014 Averages cpc is 0.22 eur

What you have to say on this?

For one, you are comparing an incomplete month with a complete month.

There are also a number of reasons why your figures differ, but whar were you ecpecting? the same? higher?

Looking at this month, my CTR is 1.08%, CPC £.20 and page rpm £2.16. This doesn't really mean a lot to me to be perfectly honest :-)

Adsense is and always will be a mystery.

I've updated my whole website to a responvie design. Same design as before, but responsive. Updated all the adsense ads to responsive with auto sizing. Size automation works great. Where before I've had 728x90, that's exactly what is showing now, where I had 300x250 matches as well. Everything matches fine,

but,

the CTR for all the ads went down 5 times.

I was expecting overall CTR to go up, because mobile traffic is about 50% and the site was not optimized for mobile at all. Visitors on a mobile device would have been required to zoom in to see the ads, but nevertheless it is acting very unexpectedly.

I've updated my whole website to a responvie design.

Well, during the time you were probably re-designing your website and right up to now, Adsense has been mucking with text ad styles which I believe has more to do with CTR than anything else at this point. I've seen Adsense format experimentations and updates mentioned in here within the last week or so. Hard to compare what was to to that which is constantly changing.

I doubt it. Changes occurred practically overnight.

Well, we can agree that "Adsense will always be a mystery." ;)

(Have to say I haven't noticed many changes or experiments in ad styles at all for weeks on any of my sites)

When you make changes to the html code adsense loses (resets) confidence in the website, as you may have done something black-hat. So sometimes it takes weeks or even months to get the confidence back.

When you make changes to the html code adsense loses (resets) confidence in the website, as you may have done something black-hat. So sometimes it takes weeks or even months to get the confidence back.

This does seem to happen. Do you think valid clicks are being simply thrown out and disregarded? I would like to make html changes every day.

When you make changes to the html code adsense loses (resets) confidence in the website, as you may have done something black-hat. So sometimes it takes weeks or even months to get the confidence back.

My sites are all WordPress, but we make a lot of changes, add functions and whatnot. Has not been my experience as far as "confidence".

When you make changes to the html code adsense loses (resets) confidence in the website, as you may have done something black-hat. So sometimes it takes weeks or even months to get the confidence back.

Not here.

My sites are all WordPress, but we make a lot of changes, add functions and whatnot. Has not been my experience as far as "confidence".

Not here.

I've seen it for couple of custom-coded websites for years now. Adsense needs some time to digest the changes. The more you make changes the more you reset, and eventually this becomes a death spiral. But if you leave a decent design solution there for some time both CPC and CTR climb significantly. The more significant changes you perform the more it will drop. Same applies to custom mobile versions of websites. It just needs some time. And yes I think they keep the clicks. There is no other explanation. If the traffic is the same with over 80% new visitors it can't be that people suddenly, a month after every redesign, start clicking on higher paying ads. And it has nothing to do with season at all.

P.S. I'm not an adsense spokesperson, and this does not necessarily apply to all. Just sharing what I have seen over a long period of time for multiple websites (100% custom coded, no third party elements, not even addthis).

My overall revenue isn't bad but I have noticed more ridiculously low CPCs on clicks reported in Performance. Three at zero cents per click, quite a few at 1 cents and 2 cents. I'm not sure how anyone (including Google) can make an money running ads at zero cents per click.

I know that everything about this business is mysterious but this seems unintuitive in the extreme. Is there something about this I don't understand?

A CTR of 1.49% is great for a forum (usually my CTRs run in the fractions of one percent) but for a penny CPC?

WDR

June was a strong month for me, best of the year so far. July is off to a slower start, though.

Best June ever.