There is a lot of FUD and an increasing amount of fake news and false ‘treatments’ wandering the inter-webs.

Note: most airport security is security theatre to (1) look like something positive is being done by authorities (2) make general public feel better/safer (3) transfer requirements/costs from private organisations to the public purse. With face masks 1 & 2 are obvious, 3 is more a matter of nothing else on offer.

If in public there are four behaviours that appear to make a significant difference and that is because the virus enters via the eyes, the mouth, and the nose:
1. maintain a 2-metre distance.
* while the droplets can be coughed further and do hang about until influenced by gravity this is considered a ‘best compromise’; 3-metres would be better but largely impracticable.

2. cough only into elbow, or preferably, into a tissue that is immediately safely garbaged.
* Note: if one does have Covid-19 the clothing over the elbow is now contaminated and difficult to sanitise.

3. wash hands frequently - and properly, especially after coughing or touching surfaces, with 60%+ alcohol cleanser or, better yet, soap and water for a minimum of 30 seconds.
* Note: transmission is primarily by one’s hands touching face especially eyes, mouth, nose.

4. wear an appropriate face mask fitted properly.

Note: which brings us to why the WHO recommends against general public use of masks: (1) they do not cover your eyes; (2) increase face touching during putting on, taking off, adjusting; (3) if not properly fitted N95 masks many/most viruses will not be stopped; (4) decontamination for reuse is nontrivial... a solid rationale in a not so rational environment.

IMO while general mask use is largely, but not entirely, security theatre the morale, emotional and mental, benefits may be substantial. Plus it minimises need to cough into clothing over elbow (see above).

How well to what degree widespread homemade or generic dust and surgical style masks actually work or not should be known within a month given the recent uptake especially in the US.

It would be great to learn that they make a significant difference however solid data either way is currently scant. I believe that where used hand washing will make or break their utility.

Take care. Be well.

2000 Gloves.

Last time I posted in this thread was 10 days ago at 1:12 am on Mar 23, 2020 (utc -5).... Boy things have changed a bit...e.g. numbers are math which predictors(i dont know if that is even a word at this point with 'dear leader' all over the place) are all over at times to predict but then sh*t just happens <-- that was the head scratchy part at not even 6 am EST, well just now I guess.

Negatives:

We were planning a massive get together for mid June Class-Reunion, to share 3 decades to be exact, worth of accumulated 'holly cow' moments of our lives apart on this planet - no more, for now, not in person. We now understand that it is postponed for in-person hugs and kisses and what ever else some might have been thinking on reconciling in the woods. 3 decades was a long time to wait but given current status...

Good news:

Is all of that ^ brought us back together! The small tribe our parents tried & had created & maintained for 10 years while we were in school is thriving along again and that means they(parents and grands++) did pretty good job back then teaching us how to.

On a bit more positive note:

Reconnected with an old class mate who purchased a warehouse a few years back with a *** of stuff in it, one of those 'liquidation' sales. So started chatting about things and he mentioned that there is a small pile of boxes that was left in a warehouse and it might be something really cool.

And Yes it was! Medical Gloves! Who knew right? So now 1 box will be donated to Hospital where my Sis works and 1 box to a Hospital where my landlords wife works.

1000 Gloves in each box. Good stuff!

Comparisons update, as of Wednesday, 01 April:
Note: d/m == deaths/million

Italy: day 38, 231.9 d/m up from 219.3 yesterday.
—-Note: 13,915 up from 13,155 total deaths.

Switzerland: day 29, 63.1 d/m up from 57.4 yesterday.
—-Note: 536 up from 488 total deaths.
France: day 28, 80.6 d/m up from 60.3 yesterday
—-Note: 5398 up from 4043 total deaths.
Spain: day 27, 220.2 d/m up from 199.7 yesterday
—-Note: 10,348 up from 9387 total deaths.

UK: day 23, 44.3 d/m up from 35.7 yesterday.
—-Note: 2926 up from 2357 total deaths.
US: day 22, 18.0 d/m up from 14.5 yesterday.
—-Note: 5926 up from 4757 total deaths.

Germany: day 20, 13.3 d/m up from 11.1 yesterday.
—-Note: 1107 up from 920 total deaths.
Sweden: day 22, 30.8 d/m up from 23.9 yesterday
—-Note: 308 up from 239 total deaths.

Canada: day 17, 3.7 d/m up from 2.9 yesterday.
—-Note: 139 up from 109 total deaths.

The CDC has changed its advice about "face coverings":

[cdc.gov...]

Comparisons update, as of Friday, 03 April:
Note: d/m == deaths/million

Note: France has taken a sudden death ‘growth rate’ jump in past two days also going from just under to just over Italy’s graph line.

Italy: day 39, 244.7 d/m up from 231.9 yesterday.
—-Note: 14,681 up from 13,915 total deaths.

Switzerland: day 30, 69.5 d/m up from 63.1 yesterday.
—-Note: 591 up from 536 total deaths.
France: day 29, 97.3 d/m up from 80.6 yesterday
—-Note: 6520 up from 5398 total deaths.
Spain: day 28, 238.3 d/m up from 220.2 yesterday
—-Note: 11,198 up from 10,348 total deaths.

UK: day 24, 54.7 d/m up from 44.3 yesterday.
—-Note: 3611 up from 2926 total deaths.
US: day 23, 21.5 d/m up from 18.0 yesterday.
—-Note: 7087 up from 5926 total deaths.

Germany: day 21, 15.4 d/m up from 13.3 yesterday.
—-Note: 1275 up from 1107 total deaths.
Sweden: day 23, 35.8 d/m up from 30.8 yesterday
—-Note: 358 up from 308 total deaths.

Canada: day 18, 4.7 d/m up from 3.7 yesterday.
—-Note: 179 up from 139 total deaths.

It’s been 2-weeks since I began the daily deaths/million posts. Time to show, not the usual DoD change but the past WoWs.

Note: the number in brackets is the multiplier increase over previous week; this should help show rate of acceleration increase/decrease.

Note: First result from 20 March, second from 27 March, third from 03 April.

Canada: day 4, 0.3 deaths/million
Canada: day 11, 1.4 (x4.67)
Canada: day 18, 4.7 (x3.36)

Sweden: day 9, 1.6 deaths/million
Sweden: day 16, 10.0 (x6.25)
Sweden: day 23, 35.8 (x3.58)

Germany: day 7, 0.8 deaths/million
Germany: day 14, 4.1 (x5.13)
Germany: day 21, 15.4 (x3.76)

US: day 9, 0.7 deaths/million
US: day 16, 4.8 (x6.86)
US: day 23, 31.5 (x6.56)

UK: day 10, 2.7 deaths/million
UK: day 17, 11.5 (x4.26)
UK: day 24, 54.7 (x4.76)

Spain: day 14, 22.2 deaths/million
Spain: day 21, 109.3 (x4.92)
Spain: day 28, 238.3 (x2.18)

France: day 15, 6.7 deaths/million
France: day 22, 29.8 (x4.45)
France: day 29, 97.3 (x3.27)

Switzerland: day 16, 6.4 deaths/million
Switzerland: day 23, 27.2 (x4.25)
Switzerland: day 30, 69.5 (x2.56)

Italy: day 25, 67.3 deaths/million
Italy: day 32, 152.2 (x2.26)
Italy: day 39, 244.7 (x1.61)

The good news is that Turkey's doubling rate is improving. The bad news is that “improving” means it’s now close to ... two days, or possibly a hair longer.

Spain and Italy are currently doing the Alphonse-et-Gaston thing. Worrying, since Spain has only about 3/4 Italy's population. Portugal seems to be on the same trajectory as Spain.

Germany passed China a few days ago, and now France has too. (Yes, I realize there are questions about the accuracy of China's reporting--but as long as they are reporting new cases, we can only go by what they tell us. What a good thing it didn't all start in North Korea, or the first anyone would have heard would be rumors that half the population has died.)

On the weforum chart, the latest to jump out horrifically is Cameroon. Fingers crossed.

Ukraine and, even more so, Belarus both look extremely worrying. (Don’t know about Ukraine, but Belarus is another country where reported numbers should be viewed with extreme suspicion.)

Clearly the place to be right now is northern Canada. Cases in NWT and even Yukon can still be counted on your fingers, while Nunavut has not yet reported any cases at all.

Things are starting to improve, the US' doubling rate is getting closer to 3, Canada has crossed the 3 day line, Turkey crossed 2 days. As mentioned in a previous post there appears to be this upper limit, where the curve appears to become asymptotic, follow the paths for China, Iran, Italy, South Korea on WOE forum graph. Oddly, the pest "performing" countries such as Japan, and Singapore don't appear to be following this same pattern they appear to continue to follow a straight line (in log domain), with a shallower slope. With suggests that they are taking longer to reach this inflection point. Do our actions influence the position of this inflection point?

I think that the worst is still to come, not in infections, but in deaths. When you look at the numbers on John Hopkins chart the number of confirmed cases is very high, and more worrying is that the number of active is almost as high. In the US the number of active cases in more than 90% of the total. This means that the full impact in terms of deaths has not yet been felt.

Comparisons update, as of Saturday, 04 April:
Note: d/m == deaths/million

Note: flattening may be due to Sweden weekend again, will know in couple days.

Note: France, Switzerland, and UK with significant acceleration jump past few days. France and UK noticeably on the bad side of Italy graph line, Switzerland still noticeably on the good side.

Note: US acceleration starting to pickup but still well on good side of Italy’s base line.

Italy: day 40, 256.0 d/m up from 244.7 yesterday.
—-Note: 15,362 up from 14,681 total deaths.

Switzerland: day 31, 78.4 d/m up from 69.5 yesterday.
—-Note: 666 up from 591 total deaths.
France: day 30, 113.0 d/m up from 97.3 yesterday
—-Note: 7574 up from 6520 total deaths.
Spain: day 29, 254.2 d/m up from 238.3 yesterday
—-Note: 11,947 up from 11,198 total deaths.

UK: day 25, 65.5 d/m up from 54.7 yesterday.
—-Note: 4320 up from 3611 total deaths.
US: day 24, 25.6 d/m up from 21.5 yesterday.
—-Note: 8407 up from 7087 total deaths.

Germany: day 22, 17.4 d/m up from 15.4 yesterday.
—-Note: 1444 up from 1275 total deaths.
Sweden: day 24, 37.3 d/m up from 35.8 yesterday
—-Note: 373 up from 358 total deaths.

Canada: day 19, 5.7 d/m up from 4.7 yesterday.
—-Note: 218 up from 179 total deaths.

Comparisons update, as of Sunday, 05 April:
Note: d/m == deaths/million

Note: flattening may be due to Sweden weekend again, will know tomorrow.

Italy: day 41, 264.8 d/m up from 256.0 yesterday.
—-Note: 15,887 up from 15,362 total deaths.

Switzerland: day 32, 84.1 d/m up from 78.4 yesterday.
—-Note: 715 up from 666 total deaths.
France: day 31, 120.8 d/m up from 113.0 yesterday
—-Note: 8093 up from 7574 total deaths.
Spain: day 30, 269.0 d/m up from 254.2 yesterday
—-Note: 12,641 up from 11,947 total deaths.

UK: day 26, 74.9 d/m up from 65.5 yesterday.
—-Note: 4943 up from 4320 total deaths.
US: day 25, 29.2 d/m up from 25.6 yesterday.
—-Note: 9619 up from 8407 total deaths.

Germany: day 23, 19.1 d/m up from 17.4 yesterday.
—-Note: 1584 up from 1444 total deaths.
Sweden: day 25, 40.1 d/m up from 37.3 yesterday
—-Note: 401 up from 373 total deaths.

Canada: day 20, 6.8 d/m up from 5.7 yesterday.
—-Note: 259 up from 218 total deaths.

Tangential gripes after returning from the grocery store:

#1 Do Not Shop With Your ### Roommate. Let one person go to the store and come in contact with other humans, while the other goes for a walk.

#2 Low traffic does not mean no traffic. Do not step backward into the street from between parked cars without looking. (I almost hit someone on my bicycle.)

There are perhaps forty of us who add to a group list then take turns, if no one has other reason for going ‘downtown’, picking up everything and delivering to doorsteps.

The grocery stores/pharmacies will have (prepaid) orders picked and individually bagged/boxed ready for pickup from their delivery/warehouse access.

A highly convenient neighbourly daily delivery system.

Note: I didn’t have anything to do with start of this, that was the ‘ladies who walk (some with dogs) and talk’ on our road; now each 2-meters apart; dogs still get to share sniffs, women still get to chat.

At this point, there are many documented and statistically analyzed reports which confirm for me that asymptomatic individuals who are infected can spread the disease. This was posited and quickly confirmed also among epidemiologists in Taiwan, who probably did the best job in controlling the spread of the disease in their country. Does anyone here need further references, or is that now generally accepted?

Regarding "flattenng" the epidemic curve to slow the rate of spread, here's a short video that should cover the topic for those reading this thread who've seen the graph that CDC has been using but still aren't completely clear on why we need to do everything possible to slow the spread of the virus. The idea is to keep the exponential increase in the number of patients from overwhelming existing intensive care resources....

Beating Coronavirus: Flattening the Curve, Raising the Line
trt 5:41 - Mar 20, 2020
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D7uQwQTRDew [youtube.com]

- - - -

Additionally, here's a very comprehensive article that answers many questions about the specifics of how the disease is spread. It was written by a well-known and highly respected food scientist and chef, and I recommend it highly....

Food Safety and Coronavirus: A Comprehensive Guide
Questions about COVID-19 and food safety, answered
J. Kenji López-Alt - March 20, 2020
https://www.seriouseats.com/2020/03/food-safety-and-coronavirus-a-comprehensive-guide.html [seriouseats.com]

Today’s happy news: The prime minister of New Zealand, bless her heart, has declared the Tooth Fairy and Easter Bunny to be essential services whose operations will continue as usual, subject to the ordinary social-distancing guidelines.

The people who make the weforum chart [weforum.org]* have belatedly realized it was not such a good idea to give Africa and Europe near-identical color coding (both started out as very, very similar shades of blue). The latest Cause for Alarm is Niger, but it always takes a week or so to see what direction things are moving.

Our local weekly reprinted an article observing that more study is needed about how long the virus can survive in salt water--while also pointing out that if you go to the beach and every parking space is filled, ocean transmission should be the least of your worries.


* Dunno about anyone else, but every ### time I open this page it defaults to some date in mid-March, making me think briefly that things are not as bad as yesterday. I’ve wiped cookies, and can’t think what else is causing it.

@Robert Charleton, interesting video on flattening the curve. Unfortunately, that ship has sailed (in most of the developed world) any actions above and beyond those in place already are unlikely to substantially make a difference. That is not to say that we should stop what we are already doing. The actions to flattening the curve must be taken in the early stages, well ahead of the peak of the crisis. I think the focus now, specially in the US, should be to get the hospital resources in place to limit the number of deaths among those that are already suffering from the disease.

While we are sharing articles, there is a great interview (podcast) with Daniel Kahneman by the New-Yorker Magazine. It basically describes how we as human have difficulty understanding and evaluating the risk relative to exponential growth. Daniel Kahneman is behavioral economist and Nobel laureat.
Why We Underestimated COVID-19
[wnycstudios.org...]

and then a segment from the Brian Lehrer show, an interview with Siddhartha Mukherjee (physician and author). The guest raises the issue of viral load, it is not just about exposure (or not exposure) but the amount of virus that your exposed to that plays a role as to severity of the disease.
How Viruses Like COVID-19 May Work
[wnyc.org...]

Comparisons update, as of Monday, 06 April:
Note: d/m == deaths/million

Note: yes, the flattening was likely the Swedish weekend effect with a jump up yesterday.

Italy: day 42, 275.4 d/m up from 264.8 yesterday.
—-Note: 16,523 up from 15,887 total deaths.

Switzerland: day 33, 90.0 d/m up from 84.1 yesterday.
—-Note: 765 up from 715 total deaths.
France: day 32, 133.2 d/m up from 120.8 yesterday
—-Note: 8926 up from 8093 total deaths.
Spain: day 31, 283.9 d/m up from 269.0 yesterday
—-Note: 13,341 up from 12,641 total deaths.

UK: day 27, 81.6 d/m up from 74.9 yesterday.
—-Note: 5385 up from 4943 total deaths.
US: day 26, 32.8 d/m up from 29.2 yesterday.
—-Note: 10,783 up from 9619 total deaths.

Germany: day 24, 21.8 d/m up from 19.1 yesterday.
—-Note: 1810 up from 11584 total deaths.
Sweden: day 26, 47.7 d/m up from 40.1 yesterday
—-Note: 477 up from 401 total deaths.

Canada: day 21, 8.9 d/m up from 6.8 yesterday.
—-Note: 339 up from 259 total deaths.

Back on 27-March I posted an extrapolated from available data line that showed a potential US million deaths from Covid-19 by end of April.

While the reported death numbers for 29-March and yesterday (05-April) were close, albeit slightly below, to forecast the response, in the past week, of state and local governments has had a dramatic effect.

Below see (1) my original graph line numbers, (2) with arrows to my current revised numbers, (3) in brackets current best case.
Note: as with hurricane tracks probabilities spread with time in future.

March 27: 1581
March 29: 2500 :: 2490
April 05: 11,000 :: 10,783
April 12: 50,000 —> 40,000 (30,000)
April 19: 250,000—> 90,000 (60,000)
April 26: 1-million—> 250,000 (90,000)

As much changed, for the better, with the uptake of isolation and distancing so much in future will depend on the behaviours of various locales/states going forward; with no federal direction uncertainty increases.
Note: remember that the deaths today was largely (medical capability is the kicker) determined one to two weeks prior, which is why actions taken today will not show for another week or two.

Whether right or wrong to whatever degree will be obvious - just check forecast against reality.

Some points of interest:
* I’ve long suspected that Covid-19 deaths have/are being undercounted for the simple reasons of few test kits available so only testing at hospitals and only then when symptoms show.

Now, a study done in NYC estimates a ~40% undercount, i.e. medical examiner has no kits so no testing on deaths at home.
The past month saw a ten-fold increase in home reported deaths.

* Denmark announced plan to reopen nursery and primary schools 13-April (this coming Monday) with companies to gradually phase in reopening.

Austria announced small shops to reopen this Monday as well.

They will be an interesting empirical experiment to watch. Austria may be past peak now, Denmark isn’t yet...

* As mentioned previously by NickMNS viral load may well be the difference between light and life threatening Covid-19. Given medical workers with insufficient inappropriate safety equipment the number of fast onset and death of nurses and doctors is as excruciatingly understandable as the deaths of soldiers in the initial WW1 gas attacks. Penny wise pound foolish politicians strike again. And again. And again...

* The US has been buying out from under other countries (even on dockside or in transit) contracted PPE. In China and Thailand for sure, even on the high seas. Over a dozen countries and climbing that are ‘upset’ with the US. Can you spell short term thinking?

Even orders by American cities and states have been ‘high jacked’ by the federal government (or contractors in its name); the most blatant being masks for NYC confiscated on unloading at a NYC dock. How to make America great again.

* The US Department of Homeland Security has authorised the giving of ‘essential worker’ ‘have a special responsibility to maintain normal work schedule’ letters as permission to be travelling out and about; including for farm workers. However, perhaps half of US farm labour are undocumented aka illegal aliens remaining subject to deportation. Essential but unwanted. Can you say oxymoron?

Add in the close quarters of processing plants highly likely to catch and spread (no health care, often poor living conditions) Covid-19.

One trend, just starting, I see, especially in the US, is the equating of mask wearing with the relaxing of distancing. If this acquires widespread acceptance hotspots may begin to pop up all over the place.

Take care. Be well.

Today’s happy news: In one Hong Kong zoo, a pair of pandas have taken advantage of the absence of human gawkers, and after years* of abstinence are mating like mad. We know this because the cameras are still running; let’s hope the pandas remain unaware of this voyeuristic detail.


* I looked this up to make sure I wasn’t being hyperbolic, and the reported interval is TEN years.

Comparisons update, as of Tuesday 07 April:
Note: d/m == deaths/million

Note: unexplained jumps in numbers from France seem to be that until last week France only reported deaths from hospitals since has included Covid-19 deaths outside hospitals as well. I suspect there is still a lot of undercounting from many countries.

Italy: day 43, 285.5 d/m up from 275.4 yesterday.
—-Note: 17,127 up from 16,523 total deaths.

Switzerland: day 34, 96.6 d/m up from 90.0 yesterday.
—-Note: 821 up from 765 total deaths.
France: day 33, 154.4 d/m up from 133.2 yesterday
—-Note: 10,343 up from 8926 total deaths.
Spain: day 32, 298.8 d/m up from 283.9 yesterday
—-Note: 14,045 up from 13,341 total deaths.

UK: day 28, 93.5 d/m up from 81.6 yesterday.
—-Note: 6171 up from 5385 total deaths.
US: day 27, 38.7 d/m up from 32.8 yesterday.
—-Note: 12,722 up from 10,783 total deaths.

Germany: day 25, 24.3 d/m up from 21.8 yesterday.
—-Note: 2016 up from 1810 total deaths.
Sweden: day 27, 59.0 d/m up from 47.7 yesterday
—-Note: 591 up from 477 total deaths.

Canada: day 22, 9.9 d/m up from 8.9 yesterday.
—-Note: 375 up from 339 total deaths.

At what point does this become morbid?

@Iamlost

One trend, just starting, I see, especially in the US, is the equating of mask wearing with the relaxing of distancing. If this acquires widespread acceptance hotspots may begin to pop up all over the place.

This is is scary as _____. Let's hope that the science prevails.

The US has been buying out from under other countries

There was a report on CBC's the National last night, talking about how the ongoing trade dispute over masks with Canada could cause the border to shut down completely, including the border between Windsor Ontario and Detroit, where Canadian health care workers cross the borders to risk their lives on a daily basis to work in US hospitals. Detroit is trending to be next big hotspot after New-York City. This isn't even short term thinking, this is shooting yourself in the foot.

I’ve long suspected that Covid-19 deaths have/are being undercounted for the simple reasons of few test kits available so only testing at hospitals and only then when symptoms show.

If deaths are undercounted, what about the undiagnosed cases? The former provincial health minister here in Qc was suggesting yesterday that the current government should be conducting survey testing, that is randomly sampling the general public to determine whether they developed antibodies in order to assess the number individually that may have been infected at some point and have since developed immunity. This will help determine our societal risk moving forward. Basically, how close we are to achieving herd immunity.

@Lucy24 I'm sure there is a niche for Panda P_rn. I see it now, the next Netflix series the Panda King.

@Marshall

At what point does this become morbid?

That point is long past.

At what point does this become morbid?

February, I think.

One side effort of Covid-19 data science is that of investigating the difference between deaths, especially but not confined to those of respiratory failure, in a locale for a current period and past maximums, eg: March in NYC or France.

While not as precise as if all deaths had been tested it shows up ‘embarrassing’ deliberate or inadvertent miscounts quite clearly.

Morbid, yes. Necessary, yes. When all reports are suspect good data analysis can illuminate holes and futures both.

At what point does this become morbid?

I call February as well as that was when I was first told to stop being, among things, morbid.

As the first Canadian case was mid-January that couple of weeks lag in public understanding has pretty much continued behind the curve while looking for an out - can you say masks for solace?

Lockdown in Wuhan, the size of London, was for more than 3 months and is only now being slowly lifted - if you live in a residential block which does not have infections or have a clean QR code on your mobile you can now use restarted public transport.

In the UK some Journalists asked about exit strategies from the lockdown - which here is just weeks old - fairly obviously UK politicians medical and science experts weren't prepared at this stage to respond to such questions.

Comparisons update, as of Wednesday, 08 April:
Note: d/m == deaths/million

Note: both Switzerland (105.3) and UK (107.7) passed the 100 deaths per million mark yesterday.
Note: France (162.5), Italy (294.5), and Spain (314.7) did so earlier.

Italy: day 44, 294.5 d/m up from 285.5 yesterday.
—-Note: 17,669 up from 17,127 total deaths.

Switzerland: day 35, 105.3 d/m up from 96.6 yesterday.
—-Note: 895 up from 821 total deaths.
France: day 34, 162.5 d/m up from 154.4 yesterday
—-Note: 10,887 up from 10,343 total deaths.
Spain: day 33, 314.7 d/m up from 298.8 yesterday
—-Note: 14,792 up from 14,045 total deaths.

UK: day 29, 107.7 d/m up from 93.5 yesterday.
—-Note: 7,111 up from 6171 total deaths.
US: day 28, 44.7 d/m up from 38.7 yesterday.
—-Note: 14,695 up from 12,722 total deaths.

Germany: day 26, 28.3 d/m up from 24.3 yesterday.
—-Note: 2349 up from 2016 total deaths.
Sweden: day 28, 68.7 d/m up from 59.0 yesterday
—-Note: 687 up from 591 total deaths.

Canada: day 23, 10.7 d/m up from 9.9 yesterday.
—-Note: 407 up from 375 total deaths.

Today’s cause for Extreme Concern: Bangladesh. Only a few days in, so as usual there is time for their appalling doubling time to be an artifact of reporting ... but at best they might go the way of Turkey, where two days is an improvement. In Europe, Belarus is looking exceptionally bad. Apples and oranges, possibly: Bangladesh is poorer and much more densely populated; Belarus is less transparent. In each case, real numbers are anyone’s guess.

:: wandering off in search of Today’s Positive News ::