...even for medical professionals, who should be getting re-tested daily as a precaution.

In Italy and Spain they no longer test medical providers because they can’t afford to let any go home even if sick.

I don’t think the realty of what an epidemic/pandemic has sunk in for many, especially in the US, albeit I hear denial and web spread ignoramous myths here in Canada too.

What is and has been done in a few places (eg Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan) is not relevant in Europe or North America, we are past that stage. Once the numbers are knocked down then it may be feasible (how possible varies greatly by jurisdiction) to use such policies/methodologies to jump on later breakouts/hotspots or recurrences.

It will be interesting to see how well how poorly each country gets through this, how locked down their reactions for what periods, and how they plan for the future.

Fortunately the local Co Op had microwave popcorn on special a week ago so I am well stocked.

Another worrying issue coming to light is that the Netherlands has recalled 600k defective masks (from a order of 1.3M, defect rate of 50%) some of which had already been distributed to hospitals. No testing + defective PPI.

The Netherlands is inspecting the masks, are others?

Even worse and more worrying are some potential attitudes, relating to this:
1- We are in a crisis, we need masks we don't have time or resources to QC them.
2- A defective mask is better than no mask. (is it though?)
3- I'd rather not know...

A Source, among many regarding this story:
[dw.com...]

In Italy and Spain they no longer test medical providers because they can’t afford to let any go home even if sick.

The same in the Netherlands. If you have any respiratory symptoms like cough, running nose, etc, you have to stay home, except for health workers who have to go to work regardless of their symptoms.

The Dutch government has forced a solution in the test shortage problem in the country. The main problem was a lack of lysis buffer solution to perform the tests, needed in equipment manufactured by the Swish company Roche. Roche claimed the contents of the lysis buffer was a company secret, but the Dutch government managed to get the recipe and is now allowed to have third parties make the reagents.

Roche backpedals and agrees to provide a solution for Covid-19 tests in the Netherlands [statnews.com]

Health Minister Hugo de Jonge floated the idea of issuing a compulsory license, which would permit the government to side step any Roche patents and arrange for alternate production.

A Roche spokesman wrote us that the company “understands the enormous demand for Covid-19 tests in the Netherlands, as well as worldwide. There is no shortage of Roche’s lysis buffer solution as of today. There is also no patent protection on the lysis buffer itself.

Testing is not about identifying who can stay home. It’s about keeping track of contacts. A single asymptomatic grocery clerk will breathe on hundreds of people every day. An asymptomatic hospital worker may have fewer contacts in that same time period--but many of those contacts will be exceptionally vulnerable.

In other news, I see the US has reported its first COVID infant death. (Was it the mayor of NYC who recently put out those videos addressed to young people, saying flatly You are wrong ?)

For those who derive comfort from thinking “Well, at least we’re not handling it as badly as Country X”: India’s initial shutdown order covered everything including the factories that make essential COVID-related material. (I believe someone has subsequently seen sense. Or, at least, I want to believe...)

@tangor: On the press conference in the Rose Garden a few hours ago, Dr. Deborah Birx stated that the models showed that if nothing is done, the estimated deaths will be between 1.6 and 2.2 million in the US alone.

Anyone is entitled to have their own opinion about if temporarily harming the economy is worse than reducing this number of casualties, but I sincerely hope that you start to understand that COVID-19 is not just a flu passing by.

On the issue of serum testing, the central blood bank system in the Netherlands is already testing three weeks systematically for COVID-19 antibodies in the blood supplied by blood donors. The first results of this are soon expected and will provide a glimpse of how fast immunity for the virus spreads in the community.

@lammert ...

The active is "IF NOTHING IS DONE..." I rest my case because WAY MORE THAN NOTHING IS being DONE.

MIGHT bring some actual facts. Even Brix doesn't have them all. This was a WORST CASE MODEL. We know how badly computer models work---as webmasters---when AI and programmers of same penalize websites for strange and obscure reasons that even the model makers can't explain.

Will covid-19 achieve mortality of the 1918 pandemic in US, which I believe was near 700,000? Time will tell. Also 1918 was preunderstanding of virii and lacked any kind of medical procedures to address same. We live in different times and different abilities.

I doubt it US will see 1918 deaths. After all, we can look with absolute hope to CHINA for showing us that only 3300 out of 1.4 billion died. Apparently only sloppy Americans can be so stupid to let 2558 out of 330 million die. Or to have left their borders open to travelers from the incubation point IN JANUARY AND FEBRUARY before shutting down travel. If the CHINESE, who have declared they not only contained their infections and death tolls, but stress there are no new cases are correct there ain't no freakin' way 2 million Americans will die.

Italy, of course, will disagree. Rightfully so. They had 300,000 Chinese in freely living and traveling in country during the NON-REPORTING PERIOD before China acknowledged "we have a problem".

SOMEBODY somewhere IS TELLING HUGE FIBS----and I mean ALL THE PLAYERS---which leaves the gullible or easily frightened buying it hook, line, and sinker.

Believe me, we DO HAVE A PROBLEM. Is shutting down the ECONOMY the answer?

It will take 10 years or more before we have real numbers because NOT ONE SINGLE nation/state is going to report realities ... USA excepted because this is a political year and politics are driving the worst REPORTING for an obvious reason. However, the NUMBERS are probably accurate ...

Which makes one wonder about all the OTHER NUMBERS out there. (sigh)

WHY DIDN'T CHINA, who had this virus THREE MONTHS BEFORE THE REST OF THE WORLD, only lose 3300?

Tangor, take more care with your own numbers. China did not have this virus there months before the rest of the world, it was less than two months. China reported the new virus to WHO on Dec. 31; the first known case dates back to Nov. 17. Thailand reported its first case on January 13, which means it had spread to Thiailand some time before that.

The countries that took prompt and well-coordinated steps to limit the spread of the disease are faring a lot better both medically and economically than the countries which didn't take it seriously enough, soon enough. The countries that made it their highest priority to protect the health of their populations will end up with the least economic damage, too..

The US's stunningly uncoordinated response will leave it with the worst of both words - major economic stress <plus> a horrific death count. Too many people believed and spread the lie that it's no worse than the flu.

This chart maps covid-19 cases in the last week against total confirmed cases. It shows most countries stuck in the exponential phase of the virus and it is clear from the chart that only two countries thus far have escaped exponential growth, one is China and the other South Korea. Of course China and South Korea used different methods in the main, China using primarily a massive shutdown and South Korea using testing contact tracing and isolation in a big way also using technology to keep track of its population and avoiding lockdown which they have stated would be undemocratic.

Anyhow, enough from me, the chart however is the best way so far I have found to review the progress of this virus.

[aatishb.com...]

Comparisons update, as of Sunday, 29 March
Note: d/m == deaths/million

Italy: day 34, 179.7 d/m up from 167.1 yesterday.
—-Note: 10,779 total deaths.

Switzerland: day 25, 35.3 d/m up from 31.1 yesterday.
—-Note: 300 total deaths.
France: day 24, 39.0 d/m up from 34.6 yesterday
—-Note: 2611 total deaths.
Spain: day 23, 144.7 d/m up from 127.3 yesterday
—-Note: 6803 total deaths.

UK: day 19, 18.7 d/m up from 15.5 yesterday.
—-Note: 1231 total deaths.
US: day 18, 7.5 d/m up from 6.2 yesterday.
—-Note: 2467 total deaths.

Germany: day 16, 6.4 d/m up from 5.2 yesterday.
—-Note: 533 total deaths.
Sweden: day 18, 10.5 d/m same as 10.5 past two days.
—-Note: if not an anomaly or reporting error Sweden may have plateaued.
—-Note: 110 total deaths.

Canada: day 13, 1.7 d/m up from 1.6 yesterday.
—-Note: 64 total deaths.

One other thing that would help is if everyone would wear a mask if they need to go outside their homes for groceries or whatever. Save the N95 masks for medical personnel, but it would help to reduce spread if the rest of us would wear home-made "sneeze-catcher" masks. Some countries are starting to require masks.

I've been DIY on masks. I have a few old N95 masks from woodworking days, but they are at least 15 years old and I wouldn't use them other than for dust control today.

The original advice to not wear masks unless you are infected was based on the low availability of PPE for frontline workers and made some sense, but it does not make sense not to protect your family's health in whatever way you can. In their covid-19 (paywall-free) coverage there is an article to help people learn the basics at WP: [washingtonpost.com...]

The internet has become the only interaction a lot of people will have at the moment. As webmasters we can help people.

I went through a mental health drop last year when a period of intense work suddenly ended. I started by not being motivated to do anything, then 3 months later had still not done anything and by then had your actual depression and anxiety on top.

I also lost my job and my social life last week. But I'm OK. I know what will happen if I stop being motivated and have some plans in place to avoid that. I'm keeping myself well busy doing stuff.

For most ordinary people this will be the first time they have experienced this much stress together with a transition from being busy to doing nothing. Most will not even see the hole they might fall into.

As webmasters we can make a difference. I run a couple of forums and I'm trying to encourage members to walk around the hole and not fall in to it. I am of course already mad so take my ideas with a pinch of salt.

The idea I've been promoting is to find some way to get busy right now. Take the holiday later. Once you have got projects on the go you can take a break and have something that is easy to get back in to. If you take a break between projects without first lining upthenew one it will be much more difficult to get back to things.

[edited by: vordmeister at 8:14 pm (utc) on Mar 30, 2020]

Spain: day 23, 144.7 d/m up from 127.3 yesterday

wtf ? ! ? ! (Yes, I realize Italy's raw numbers are higher--but they’re also about ten days further in.)

I have a few old N95 masks from woodworking days, but they are at least 15 years old and I wouldn't use them other than for dust control today.

This sent me pawing through the toolbox, where I discovered an ancient mask of unknown provenance.* It occurs to me a mask of any kind might help with social distancing in the US, because the sight remains so unfamiliar, people will recoil in horror, achieving the same purpose.


* Couldn’t find the goggles**, though, which I could swear I bought for the same project. But there are worse ways to spend time than digging through a toolbox; it’s the next best thing to browsing in the hardware store. :)

** My fingers typed “google”. Sadly, IANMTU.

Re Masks:
Masks, specially do it yourself masks, are of no use. Their purpose is to reduce the propagation of droplets, so unless you have symptoms, they are of no use.
If you have symptoms you should not be out in public.

Their purpose is to reduce the propagation of droplets, so unless you have symptoms, they are of no use.

Remember that this can be spread by people who are not showing symptoms. You can spread this before you know you have it. Reducing the propagation of droplets is a good thing, period.

Remember that this can be spread by people who are not showing symptoms.

If you are not showing symptoms, then you are not coughing or sneezing and hence the mask serves no purpose. If you are coughing and sneezing, you should be in self isolation.

Also, if one is healthy or otherwise asymptomatic one should be keeping a distance from other people of at least six feet, whether or not one is wearing a mask. Again a mask provides "zero" protection against catching the disease, with the exception of a fit-tested n95 masks. Leave the masks for hospitals and medical professional where they are essential.

Until it's over we must do as told by authorities wether we agree or not, it's as simple as that. Hindsight will be 20/20 to prepare us for next time.

not showing symptoms, then you are not coughing or sneezing and hence the mask serves no purpose

People who don't know they're infected can spread this thing even without coughs or sneezes. Masks would help to contain that.

Again a mask provides "zero" protection against catching the disease

I'd agree if you said that a mask provides "limited" protection against catching the disease, but I won't agree that it's zero. But the biggest reason for ordinary people to wear masks if they need to go out is for the protection of others. My mask protects others; theirs protect me.

In our valley, quilters and crafters have been creating DIY masks in every color of the rainbow. Many a fabric stash has been raided to serve the cause.

Hello,

Is Our Fight Against Coronavirus Worse Than the Disease?

I don't know what is worse than death...

Regarding the issue of wearing masks, I trust the information of the WHO more than opinions posted on a board by anonymous members. The official recommendations of the WHO on masks in relation to the Corona virus are on their website [who.int].

• If you are healthy, you only need to wear a mask if you are taking care of a person with suspected 2019-nCoV infection.
  
• Wear a mask if you are coughing or sneezing.
  
• Masks are effective only when used in combination with frequent hand-cleaning with alcohol-based hand rub or soap and water.
  
• If you wear a mask, then you must know how to use it and dispose of it properly.

Comparisons update, as of Monday, 30 March
Note: d/m == deaths/million

Italy: day 35, 193.2 d/m up from 179.7 yesterday.
—-Note: 11,591 up from 10,779 total deaths.

Switzerland: day 26, 42.2 d/m up from 35.3 yesterday.
—-Note: 359 up from 300 total deaths.
France: day 25, 45.2 d/m up from 39.0 yesterday
—-Note: 3030 up from 2611 total deaths.
Spain: day 24, 164.2 d/m up from 144.7 yesterday
—-Note: 7716 up from 6803 total deaths.

UK: day 20, 21.4 d/m up from 18.7 yesterday.
—-Note: 1411 up from 1231 total deaths.
US: day 19, 9.1 d/m up from 7.5 yesterday.
—-Note: 2978 up from 2467 total deaths.

Germany: day 17, 7.8 d/m up from 6.4 yesterday.
—-Note: 645 up from 533 total deaths.
Sweden: day 19, 14.6 d/m up from 10.5 past Friday.
—-Note: apparently Swedes take weekends seriously and simply weren’t reporting leading to misleading levelling over weekend with subsequent apparent sudden increase yesterday.
—-Note: 146 up from 110 total deaths.

Canada: day 14, 2.1 d/m up from 1.7 yesterday.
—-Note: 80 up from 64 total deaths.

Um ... the WHO hasn't exactly been ahead of the curve in this whole situation.

Here's a few other points of view ...

Austria makes masks compulsory as protection debate shifts
[ft.com...]
The Czech Republic, Slovakia, and Bosnia-Herzegovina have introduced similar requirements.

Czechs get to work making masks after government decree
[theguardian.com...]

CDC considering recommending general public wear face coverings in public
[washingtonpost.com...]

It's Time to Face Facts, America: Masks Work
[wired.com...]

As for the narrative that ordinary mortals wouldn't know how to use a mask properly ... not everyone washes their hands properly either, but we don't react by telling folks not to bother. We teach them how to do it more effectively.

Masks are effective only when used in combination with frequent hand-cleaning with alcohol-based hand rub or soap and water.

I would change that to "masks are an additional line of defence when used in combination ..."

More grist for the mill ...

“We’re no longer taking the advice of the CDC and the World Health Organization,” Metropolitan Transportation Authority chairman Pat Foye said on MSNBC Tuesday.

MTA boss flouts CDC coronavirus guidance, gets workers masks - New York Daily News
[nydailynews.com...]

Reminder: People cough and sneeze from natural causes, many times every day, regardless of the presence or absence of underlying respiratory issues. If you are an asymptomatic carrier and you get a whiff of dust, you are going to sneeze.

Masks are the equivalent of the close door button on an elevator. The button does nothing, but it makes people feel like the are taking action.

Mock if you want, NickMNS, but next time I need to go out for groceries I'll be wearing a mask. I made one in a color that flatters my eyes! I cut one of the layers from a sock ... finally a use for orphan socks!

There are a growing number of tutorials and patterns available online for more than one style of mask.

Mine is like this:
[thecraftyquilter.com...]

And now the good news ... Or, at least, the fractionally less bad news: Based on the graph [weforum.org] originally linked somewhere hereabouts, social distancing is doing a little bit of good. Doubling time in the US, though still less than 3 days, has leveled-off slightly. (In this statistical category, an increase is good: the longer the better.) By this metric, Spain and Italy are also improving. Whew.

But Turkey has gone way past the point where the numbers could be passed off as an artifact of reporting :(

Comparisons update, as of Tuesday, 31 March
Note: d/m == deaths/million

Italy: day 36, 207.1 d/m up from 193.2 yesterday.
—-Note: 12,428 up from 11,591 total deaths.

Switzerland: day 27, 50.9 d/m up from 42.2 yesterday.
—-Note: 433 up from 359 total deaths.
France: day 26, 52.7 d/m up from 45.2 yesterday
—-Note: 3532 up from 3030 total deaths.
Spain: day 25, 180.1 d/m up from 164.2 yesterday
—-Note: 8464 up from 7716 total deaths.

UK: day 21, 27.2 d/m up from 21.4 yesterday.
—-Note: 1793 up from 1411 total deaths.
US: day 20, 11.8 d/m up from 9.1 yesterday.
—-Note: 3873 up from 2978 total deaths.

Germany: day 18, 9.3 d/m up from 7.8 yesterday.
—-Note: 775 up from 645 total deaths.
Sweden: day 20, 18.0 d/m up from 14.6 yesterday
—-Note: 180 up from 146 total deaths.

Canada: day 15, 2.7 d/m up from 2.1 yesterday.
—-Note: 101 up from 80 total deaths.

Comparisons update, as of Wednesday, 01 April:
Note: d/m == deaths/million

Note: Italy’s graph continues to look to peak by end week.

Note: Canada, Switzerland, USA continue to track significantly below (better than) Italy’s graph line; France, Germany, Sweden slightly below; UK slightly above; Spain majorly above (worse).

Italy: day 37, 219.3 d/m up from 207.1 yesterday.
—-Note: 13,155 up from 12,428 total deaths.

Switzerland: day 28, 57.4 d/m up from 50.9 yesterday.
—-Note: 488 up from 433 total deaths.
France: day 27, 60.3 d/m up from 52.7 yesterday
—-Note: 4043 up from 3532 total deaths.
Spain: day 26, 199.7 d/m up from 180.1 yesterday
—-Note: 9387 up from 8464 total deaths.

UK: day 22, 35.7 d/m up from 27.2 yesterday.
—-Note: 2357 up from 1793 total deaths.
US: day 21, 14.5 d/m up from 11.8 yesterday.
—-Note: 4757 up from 3873 total deaths.

Germany: day 19, 11.1 d/m up from 9.4 yesterday.
—-Note: 920 up from 775 total deaths.
Sweden: day 21, 23.9 d/m up from 18.0 yesterday
—-Note: 239 up from 180 total deaths.

Canada: day 16, 2.9 d/m up from 2.7 yesterday.
—-Note: 109 up from 101 total deaths.

$1,000 fine to residents caught without a mask in Laredo, Texas
[abc13.com...]