@Lucy24

What’s the discrepancy?

These things follow a random path, it is impossible to know for sure ex-ante.

One possible factor is population density, if one looks at the maps from John Hopkins that you linked to, it appears that most cases are in the heaviest populated regions of the US, save for maybe the worrying spikes in Georgia and Louisianna.

A likely second factor is the degree to which people take this seriously, Tangor's opinion is shared by many. This is no doubt compounded when a nation's president states publicly that he thinks it's a hoax, or states that "we should just stay calm and it will go away" when one is already experiencing exponential growth. Clearly many will share this view.

@Tangor

It is on me to protect myself and family, not a third party who may really not have my best interests at heart.

There is no way that you can "protect yourself", this is a Global crisis that doesn't care about politics, race, color or creed. The only way to overcome this is all together. Fortunately, your "selfish act" happens also to be the "selfless one", by keeping yourself and your family safe and away from this virus, you are helping those that aren't fortunate or that are more vulnerable (such as Dimtiri, if I am not mistaken).

The problem with confirmed case numbers is that it requires testing and while some countries, i.e. US, have been ramping up testing many have actually given up on mass testing. This is why I gave up tracking comparing by confirmed cases switching to confirmed deaths.

As a rough and ready rule of thumb given results where extensive testing, i.e. China, South Korea, Taiwan, was done the deaths to infected multiplier is ~400.

As of 22 March:
USA: 466 reported deaths
466 * 400 = 186,400
Much higher than the 35,213 official ‘confirmed’ number.

Global: 14,611 reported deaths
14,611 * 400 = 5,844,400
Much higher than the 335,403 official ‘confirmed’ number.

The confirmed by testing number is increasing out of touch with reality. Especially given that some countries are probably to certainly under reporting. GIGO.

Playing with numbers can be entertaining.

It is also not accurate.

On the ground facts are required. Ignoring the politics is head in the sand, but that's expected as too many failed along the way, starting with China, as regards transparency, reporting, and preparations.

Even the authority sites have skewed numbers which complicates things, and results in anxiety levels off the charts.

You guys do it your way. I will take ordinary precautions (note, I have a medical background so am not blowing smoke up anyone's skirts). I am not selfless, I am prudent. I live with a person under my care who is on oxygen 24/7/365 due to existing lung conditions and advanced diabetes. If this thing came home, it would kill her. Period. Maybe myself, too.

Meanwhile, the kids aren't gonna take it. Shutting down schools, closing beaches and bars, killing theaters, concerts, and restaurants... something will give and I fear the government (think police and politicians) will over react and there will be injuries and arrests ... creating a new generation of "revolutionaries" who will target "the establishment, and boomers, too".

It's a flu. Not Armageddon, or the Four Horsemen, or World War III.

Testing has been improved to 45 minute results. Vaccines are under test with human subject tests about to start. Malarial drugs (safe and known for decades) might have beneficial results (limited testing has proved so), and the work is just starting.

Meanwhile, the flu will continue to spread, there will be more serious cases, and some may die.

But killing a world economy and heading for a recession as a result is not the best method of addressing the flu of which this is just another variant of flus we deal with on an annual basis.

Or to put this more on topic:

If the hysteria continues, and escalates as it appears it might, your web biz suffers and might actually cease. With jobs being killed, businesses shut down, groups disbanded, incomes destroyed, who will be left to surf the web for what you got?

Meanwhile, wash your hands ... with soap and water!

It's a flu.

It is NOT the flu.

[hopkinsmedicine.org...]

Tangor, it ill behooves you to criticize people for not taking COVID-19 seriously at the same time you are repeating a lie that causes them to trivialize it.

You call hysteria, I call betrayal.

Big shutout to the medical professionals that are trying to keep us safe though.

Our sis and her hubby are a couple of those. Their hospital was one of the first ones that was hit hard in NJ. So self quarantined for for several days now, but can't wait to jump back in.

Comparisons update, as of Sunday 22 March
Note: d/m == deaths/million

* Italy: day 27, 91.3 d/m up from 80.4 yesterday.

* Switzerland: day 18, 11.5 d/m up from 8.8 yesterday
* France: day 17, 10.1 d/m up from 8.4 yesterday
* Spain: day 16, 37.7 d/m up from 29.3 yesterday
Note: Spain graph is increasingly far steeper than Italy’s; Switzerland noticeably below, France slightly below Italy’s graph line.

* UK: day 12, 4.3 d/m up from 3.5 yesterday.
* US: day 11, 1.3 d/m up from 0.9 yesterday.
Note: UK running noticeably above, US running slightly below Italy’s graph line.

* Germany: day 9, 1.1 d/m up from 1.0 yesterday.
* Sweden: day 9, 2.1 d/m up from 2.0 yesterday.
Note: Germany is right on Italy’s track, Sweden is slightly above; Sweden’s death rate continues almost double Germany’s.

* Canada: day 6, 0.6 d/m up from 0.5 yesterday.
Note: slightly below Italy’s track.

Note: the graph starts quite flat before going increasingly vertical. This means that it can be difficult to differentiate track results (barring extraordinary differences such as Spain) before day 14 (2-weeks). So this coming weekend will show important data looking forward for both UK and US.

Note: overlaying Italy’s rolling weekly average on a bell curve currently shows Italy’s epidemic peaking by mid-April and ending by mid-May.

Comparisons update, as of Monday 23 March
Note: d/m == deaths/million

* Italy: day 28, 101.3 d/m up from 91.3 yesterday.

* Switzerland: day 19, 14.1 d/m up from 11.5 yesterday
* France: day 18, 12.9 d/m up from 10.1 yesterday
* Spain: day 17, 49.2 d/m up from 37.7 yesterday
Note: Spain graph is increasingly far steeper than Italy’s, actually about a week, nasty; Switzerland noticeably below, France slightly below Italy’s graph line.

* UK: day 13, 5.1 d/m up from 4.3 yesterday.
* US: day 12, 1.7 d/m up from 1.3 yesterday.
Note: UK running slightly above, US running slightly below Italy’s graph line.

* Germany: day 10, 1.5 d/m up from 1.1 yesterday.
* Sweden: day 10, 2.5 d/m up from 2.1 yesterday.
Note: Germany is right on Italy’s track, Sweden is slightly above; Sweden’s death rate continues double Germany’s.

* Canada: day 7, 0.7 d/m up from 0.6 yesterday.
Note: slightly below Italy’s track.

Eventually, probably by July/August, this pandemic will have largely abated. However, epidemiologists have two concerns going forward:
1. small pockets that flare up
2. a second recurrence in the autumn.

If the politicians will have learned from this disaster both, even barring a vaccine (probably mid to late 2021), can be successfully mitigated - simply apply the lessons shown practicable by Taiwan, Singapore, South Korea:
* a control centre with authority
* a plan that all concerned know and understand
* immediate test for confirmation and quarantine,track and identify contacts, and require self isolation.
* Immediately isolate and support those most at risk.
* have sufficient medical supplies available. And methodology for fast resupply.
Basically get on top of it fast and hard, none of the namby pamby wishy washy contradictory time wasting experienced in most countries.

This type of virus is simple RNA, highly susceptible to mutation. R&D for health rather than profit may be worthwhile.

In the now be well, take care.

The worldometers corona tracking has now added the death/million figure to their country comparison table. It is not encouraging to see my country rank on number 6, especially when knowing that the main infection problems are concentrated in just a handful of municipalities.

Comparisons update, as of Tuesday 24 March
Note: d/m == deaths/million

* Italy: day 29, 113.7 d/m up from 101.3 yesterday.

* Switzerland: day 20, 14.4 d/m up from 14.1 yesterday
Note: if it holds this is a significant slowdown.
* France: day 19, 16.4 d/m up from 12.9 yesterday
* Spain: day 18, 59.7 d/m up from 49.2 yesterday
Note: Spain graph is increasingly far steeper than Italy’s, actually about a week ahead in casualties, nasty; France slightly below Italy’s graph line.

* UK: day 14, 6.4 d/m up from 5.1 yesterday.
* US: day 13, 2.1 d/m up from 1.7 yesterday.
Note: UK tracking Italy, US holding below Italy’s graph line.

* Germany: day 11, 1.9 d/m up from 1.5 yesterday.
* Sweden: day 11 3.6 d/m up from 2.5 yesterday.
Note: Germany is right on Italy’s track, Sweden is slightly above; Sweden’s death rate continues double Germany’s.

* Canada: day 8, 0.7 d/m same as 0.7 yesterday.
Note: slightly below Italy’s track.

Meanwhile, let us all hope that Turkey’s horrific doubling rate (less than two days) is an artifact of early reporting--they’re only about a week in--and it will eventually turn out to be something more manageable.

I saw a WHO recommendation that for mental health you should not check the news more than once a day. File Under: Good advice that nobody has ever taken or will ever take.

Comparisons update, as of Wednesday, 25 March
Note: d/m == deaths/million

* Italy: day 30, 125.1 d/m up from 113.7 yesterday.
Note: while the daily totals still show large increases the rate of growth has been slowing for about a week; the current extrapolated start of decrease is by end first week of April.

* Switzerland: day 21, 18 d/m up from 14.4 yesterday
Note: jump up but now significantly below Italy track rather than on.
* France: day 20, 19.9 d/m up from 16.4 yesterday
* Spain: day 19, 77.6 d/m up from 59.7 yesterday
Note: Spain graph is increasingly far steeper than Italy’s, actually about a week ahead in casualties, nasty; France slightly below Italy’s graph line.

* UK: day 15, 7.1 d/m up from 6.4 yesterday.
* US: day 14, 2.9 d/m up from 2.1 yesterday.
Note: UK now tracking just under Italy, US holding below Italy’s graph line.

* Germany: day 12, 2.5 d/m up from 1.9 yesterday.
* Sweden: day 14, 6.2 d/m up from 3.6 yesterday.
Note: Germany is slightly below Italy’s track, Sweden is slightly above.

* Canada: day 9, 0.4 d/m down from 0.7 yesterday; day previous was same as yesterday.
Note: slightly below Italy’s track.
Note: while looking good is in early flat part of graph and perhaps week away from when Italy (and others) began steep up curve.

Note: what I’m tracking is not cumulative deaths but rate of increase/decrease. Are deaths increasing, stable, decreasing over time and how that maps to graph of Italy’s d/m at same point in relative time.

Comparisons update, as of Thursday, 26 March
Note: d/m == deaths/million

Note: given the uneven rather late (compared to others) distancing/lock down and greatly increasing confirmed numbers (expected as testing ramps up) the US death rate is extraordinarily low; either the data is incorrect or something is very very different to produce such an intriguing difference.

* Italy: day 31, 136.9 d/m up from 125.1 yesterday.
Note: while the daily totals still show large increases the rate of growth continues to slow; the current extrapolated start of decrease is by end first week of April.

* Switzerland: day 22, 22.5 d/m up from 18.0 yesterday
Note: continuing to track well inside Italy.
* France: day 21, 25.3 d/m up from 19.9 yesterday
* Spain: day 20, 92.9 d/m up from 77.6 yesterday
Note: Spain graph continues to steeper well inside Italy’s, still about a week ahead in casualties, nasty; France slightly below Italy’s graph line.

* UK: day 16, 8.8 d/m up from 7.1 yesterday.
* US: day 15, 3.7 d/m up from 2.9 yesterday.
Note: UK now tracking just under Italy, US still below Italy’s - given reported cases et al amazingly low, something is very different given this data.

* Germany: day 13, 3.2 d/m up from 2.5 yesterday.
* Sweden: day 15, 7.7 d/m up from 6.2 yesterday.
Note: Germany is slightly below Italy’s track, Sweden is slightly above.

* Canada: day 10, 1.0 d/m up from 0.4 yesterday; day previous was same as yesterday.
Note: slightly below Italy’s track.
Note: guess the two days of flat and drop were simply anomalies; back up to tracking just below Italy.

<fe>
We’re Number One!
We’re Number One!
We’re Number One!
</fe>

I continue to be very uneasy about Turkey.

I continue to be very uneasy about Turkey.

As I.
My concern is exacerbated by the prima fascia improbable time line. Turkey has a massive daily goods truck business with Iran that, one would think, should have had Turkey on a nearly similar infection timeline.

Given that input plus the personality and prior behaviour of President Erdogan I have set Turkey on the list of countries in likely coverup mode providing unreliable data.

Being a data geek in self imposed isolation with a ML backed web analytics system at hand... it may be rather morbid but it is also quite intoxicating to be presented with an entire world’s worth of dirty noisy Rumsfeld (matrix of known unknown) data input. :)

descensus in cuniculi cavum

Bear in mind not all data reports are correct and some countries might have a reason for not being fully transparent. Then again, that's probably pretty obvious.

likely coverup mode providing unreliable data

That sounds plausible. At least it’s preferable to Explanation B, which is that they really and truly have a doubling time of 20 hours or whatever it is. (Or explanation C, that it’s been there all along but they are excruciatingly slow about testing.)

it may be rather morbid but it is also quite intoxicating

Yes, there is that nasty feeling of slowing to stare at a messy accident. *

My county’s confirmed cases more-than-doubled overnight, and the newer ones can’t be securely attributed to individual trips to affected countries.


* Earlier today I read a scene in a Jerome K. Jerome novel where a group of children slow to look at a commotion in the street. One of the people involved in the commotion snaps at them to move along because “You’ll have troubles of your own one day.” It struck me as an admirable reply.

Comparisons update, as of Friday. 27 March
Note: d/m == deaths/million

* Italy: day 32, 152.2 d/m up from 136.9 yesterday.

* Switzerland: day 23, 27.2 d/m up from 22.5 yesterday
* France: day 22, 29.8 d/m up from 25.3 yesterday
* Spain: day 21, 109.3 d/m up from 92.9 yesterday

* UK: day 17, 11.5 d/m up from 8.8 yesterday.
* US: day 16, 4.8 d/m up from 3.7 yesterday.

* Germany: day 14, 4.1 d/m up from 3.2 yesterday.
* Sweden: day 16, 10.5 d/m up from 7.7 yesterday.

* Canada: day 11, 1.4 d/m up from 1.0 yesterday.

It’s been a week since I began the daily deaths/million posts. Time to show, not the usual DoD change but the past WoW.

Note: First result from 20 March, second from 27 March.

Canada: day 4, 0.3 deaths/million
Canada: day 11, 1.4

Sweden: day 9, 1.6 deaths/million
Sweden: day 16, 10

Germany: day 7, 0.8 deaths/million
Germany: day 14, 4.1

US: day 9, 0.7 deaths/million
US: day 16, 4.8

UK: day 10, 2.7 deaths/million
UK: day 17, 11.5

Spain: day 14, 22.2 deaths/million
Spain: day 21, 109.3

France: day 15, 6.7 deaths/million
France: day 22, 29.8

Switzerland: day 16, 6.4 deaths/million
Switzerland: day 23, 27.2

Italy: day 25, 67.3 deaths/million
Italy: day 32, 152.2

If I am hitting the right buttons on my calculator, the US will hit 1 million confirmed cases in a week or so.

The grocery store has shut down most of its bulk-foods section. You can see their point: sure, all those things will be cooked, but there are a lot of hands touching the bins. I also noticed that someone at the store must have fetched out a tape measure, because the marked lines that used to be, at most, 4˝ feet apart are now the proper 6ft.

Are Europeans being advised to keep a distance of 2m? If so, they’re all a tiny bit safer than we are. And, on xkcd’s diagram [xkcd.com], they might be able to squeeze in a ninth horse. (Steady there, moderators, it’s just entertainment!)

@iamlost, you might want to add the Netherlands to your deaths/million comparison. After Italy and Spain, we are number 3 when using this metric. (San Marino and Andorra also have high rates but their population is rather small)

20 March: 6.1 deaths/million
27 March: 31.4 deaths/million

Despite these high figures, there is not a full lockdown in the country. Non-essential shops are still open and companies are working. Events are forbidden, but meetings for legal purposes (like parliament), necessary business meetings, weddings, funerals, and religious gatherings are still allowed but with a limited group size of 100 people for legal and business meetings and 30 people for weddings, funerals, and religious gatherings. Social distancing is necessary for all circumstances.

The social distance is 1.5 meter. Groups of three or more people in the public area are forbidden, unless they are part of one household, or are a group of children not older than 12 years under the supervision of one or more parents.

The government insisted that this is enough for their main goal, i.e. prevent overloading of existing ICU beds in the country. Short term availability of ICU beds in the country reserved for COVID patients is 1037, of these beds, 905 are now occupied. The "long term" plan is 1600 occupied ICU beds on 1 April and a peek of 2200 ICU beds in May. I have to mention that palliative care as an alternative for intensive care treatment is more common in the Netherlands than in many other countries which lowers the need for ICU beds somewhat.

Since the beginning of March the number of US deaths have been an almost straight line (exponential curves log scale graphed).

Extrapolating that line shows the following date:number pairs to see if things are getting better, worse, staying the same:
Note: first date:number pair is yesterday’s known results.
March 27: 1581
March 29: 2500
April 05: 11,000
April 12: 50,000
April 19: 250,000
April 26: 1-million
Basically, current data shows that unless things change greatly, even drastically, the excrement will increasingly be hitting the fan this next month.

Note: I’d really like to wrong. However, to date, the data results have been straight to point.

And now whether right or wrong to whatever degree will be obvious - just check forecast against reality this and following Sundays through April.

I’d really like to wrong.

A few days ago I was watching as France and Iran politely jostled for 6th place (confirmed cases, not deaths): “After you, sir” “No, please, after you” toggling back and forth for a day or two. It looks as if Iran has won for the time being--i.e. France’s numbers are higher. But will it stay that way?

“Hope for the best, plan for the worst.”

I have noticed the same trend. Interestingly other countries has seen similar trends and a some point the slope begins to flatten.

I think many people have attributed this to the implementation of social isolation tactics. But most of these tactics are already in use in the US, and while they could be stricter and better enforced I doubt that it would make much of a difference. Basically, what I saying is that the social isolation is not terribly effective. One should not read into this statement that we should not be using these tactics, the situation would be worse without them potentially far worse.

Where I am going with the statement is that it seems that at some point the rate of infection will slow simply by the fact that the density of potential victims will drop. In other words, those that could be easily infected, have been and the remaining population is likely less susceptible, thus slowing the spread. This is then very localized to outbreak regions. Containing the population within that region becomes critical. What is happening in NYC is horrible, but what is more terrifying is that there seems to be people fleeing the city to other regions, like burning embers floating in the air waiting to land on the next pile of leafs.

When one looks at the country level data, one sees some notable outliers, such Singapore, Japan, and South Korea as well as China to some degree, all have managed to contain the spread from the start or drastically slow the growth. If I'm not mistaken Japan and Singapore have both managed this on an outbreak level with no tighter social distancing measure that most other places. That said, it looks like their situation may change in the coming days as they have seen a recent surge in cases.

It appears to be like a chain reaction, once started there isn't much one can do to stop it, it goes viral (sorry for that one). All one can do is contain it and prevent it from starting somewhere else.

All this is scary and fascinating all at once.

Tangor, this topic is something you are clearly misinformed about.

Lives are in the balance.

Do your homework. Teenagers are dying. Twenty somethings are dying. Up to a thousand people a day are dying in Italy. And no, it's not because they have a higher rate of older people.

Many in Italy are dying because like you they dismissed the seriousness of it and encouraged each other to go out and have dinners and keep doing what they did,saying that the economy would be hurt or that they weren't at risk.

Ten days later they regretted that attitude.

I don't normally tell members when they are wrong. But I'm making a rare exception now because it needs to be said.

Tangor, you and all who are dismissive about the coronavirus pandemic are wrong.

In bold writing at the end of the video, “We underestimated this. You don’t have to do the same,” appears as a final warning.

Italian Premier Giuseppe Conte put his entire country on lockdown on March 9 to combat the spread of the coronavirus, banning all but the most important travel and putting the final kibosh on social gatherings after Italians failed to take previous warnings to heart amid skyrocketing new infections.

Conte took to task young people who continued to gather socially as the virus spread, saying “this night life... we can't allow this any more.”

[fox10phoenix.com...]

"In a video created by Milanese filmmaking collective A Thing By, several newly terrified residents of Italian cities chide themselves for their earlier skepticism and underestimation. “It’s just a flu,” one says. “This isn’t all bull---t like you thought,” confirms another. It’s disturbing to hear them describe what it’s like watching videos of Americans living their lives now as carefree as the Italians were 10 days ago,"

[fastcompany.com...]

Despite demands from Rome to stay at home as much as possible and limit all travel to essential trips, several people have been fined and reported for breaking lockdown rules. Giovanni Di Perri from the Ospedale Amedeo di Savoia of Turin, northern Italy, warned ignoring the ban could result in "thousands of deaths" across the peninsula as he spoke to Express.co.uk earlier this week.

He added: "I have to tell the truth, I still see people around shaking hands, meeting, laughing - they didn't understand that nobody should be out in the streets.

[express.co.uk...]

We'll wait and see what happens in a month. After all, the actual number of asymptomatic infections is a factor of 10 or more (there's no way to test for them). At some point everyone will have had it and either recover, or don't.

All age groups are subject to fatalities, but so far the deaths are heavily weighted to those over 60. Infant deaths are remarkably low.

Not my first pandemic.

But this is the first one where the reporting has been so poorly done for a variety of reasons for a number of causes, that this pandemic has been put into panic overdrive.

Off label treatments are beginning to have an effect. Another two weeks will tell the story in that regard.

Instead of asking me to educate myself, I suggest the rest of you calm down a little bit and get real numbers to play with. Iran and China have under-reported everything, though some news services are not following THAT story.

Neil Ferguson has revised his numbers, but that is not being reported.

What WILL happen if the current quarantine continues is a global recession/depression that will make 1929 look like a cake walk. Small business and industry in general will be decimated ... that includes webmasters. Joblessness will be immense ... and with no money, there's no honey for webmasters either.

PROTECT THOSE WHO NEED TO BE PROTECTED, otherwise, this panic will decimate country and global economies for decades to come. Which is the topic thread one more time.

How we will know this is over is when the serum testing can begin and we can find out WHO HAS ALREADY SURVIVED this bug and perhaps didn't even know it.

Don't mind being the punching bag is just one who's reading all this takes a breath and THINKS about the future ... or lack of one.

Comparisons update, as of Friday. 27 March
Note: d/m == deaths/million

Note: Spain continues to suffer, Switzerland and US continue significantly under Italy’s graph line, everyone else is on or just below it.

Italy: day 33, 167.1 d/m up from 152.2 yesterday.

Switzerland: day 24, 31.1 d/m up from 27.2 yesterday
France: day 23, 34.6 d/m up from 29.8 yesterday
Spain: day 22, 127.3 d/m up from 109.3 yesterday

UK: day 18, 15.5 d/m up from 11.5 yesterday.
US: day 17, 6.2 d/m up from 4.8 yesterday.

Germany: day 15, 5.2 d/m up from 4.1 yesterday.
Sweden: day 17, 10.5 d/m same as 10.5 yesterday.
Note: an anomaly? Tomorrow may tell. Canada did similar this past week before going back up.

Canada: day 12, 1.6 d/m up from 1.4 yesterday.

@lammert: if you would like to track and post the Netherlands and others by all means please do.

Initially I had every country with friends and colleagues but decided it was too dense/large a list. So I went with Italy as the benchmark and major/representative others - largely straight up through the EU plus Spain and UK plus US as the lead economy and Canada because, you know, my home and native land.

There are so many countries at so many different positions of infection levels with so many different reactions over time - no two seem to be learning the same lessons, fascinating.

I must reread Samuel Pepys’ diary - somehow I think his account of the Great Plague of London will resonate somewhat more...

For pandemic related history reading, Journal of the Plague Year by John M. Barry is available from Smithsonian Magazine at [smithsonianmag.com...]
I looked that up for a friend who seemed to think that the 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic originated in Spain.

BTW, that title was first used (afaik) by Daniel Defoe when he published his Great Plague related Journal, it is available at the Gutenburg.org site: [gutenberg.org...]

Events are forbidden, but meetings for legal purposes (like parliament), necessary business meetings ...

From this I deduce that businesses in the Netherlands operate on a very different mindset from businesses in the US. I don’t believe any American business manager would be capable of saying “This meeting is not necessary”.

General link to Journal of the Plague Year:
[gutenberg.org...]
including Kindle and epub versions. (I had to double-check this because PG has sometimes been cranky about deep-linking, though currently they don’t seem to mind.)

In Terry Pratchett’s Truth, which is about printing, one of the printing-press proprietors is named Gunilla Goodmountain. Other names, like Boddony, are also significant but less memorable.

But seriously... There is not much point in holding up Korea as a model for the US if you are not also prepared to test early, test often (in the early weeks Korea was testing more people every day than the US had tested altogether) so that carriers can be individually identified and isolated. To date, tests in the US are still strictly rationed--even for medical professionals, who should be getting re-tested daily as a precaution.