Poor economic outcomes don't materialise out of thin air.

The electorate has an opportunity to vote for sound, stable, long-term economic policies every couple of years.

The segment of the electorate these policies would make the most significant positive difference to often don't bother to vote in substantial numbers.

The segment of the electorate most enthusiastic about voting, do vote in substantial numbers but a distressing number increasingly vote for policies which favour their own narrow interests - this starts off by thwarting (or even harming) the interests of others to their benefit but ends up harming (nearly) everyone's interests, including their own.

The problem (I've regretfully concluded since the end of 2019) is not the governments which deliver this horrendous economic mismanagement: it's the electorates.

I am, without exaggeration, ashamed to be a citizen of a country (the UK) where so many members of even the active electorate have such a poor grasp of what kinds of socio-economic policies would benefit the country as a whole and serve their long-term best interests - or even (seemingly) aware that they're helping to choose which socio-economic policies will be prioritised for the next half-decade.

I have no solution to this. I wouldn't wish to see anything less than universal suffrage - ideally from the age of 16 upwards.

But there's no accounting for so many people's miserably poor choices.

It's worth remembering any time a politician comes under fire - they don't vote themselves into power.

Whatever happens next, help your neighbors, all of them regardless of their views. You may need their help as much as they do yours and they will be your neighbors long after the next leader is elected, and the next.

help your neighbors

I'm reading other human beings in your advice above and - assuming that's what you meant - your sentiment is absolutely right.

It's important, nevertheless, to acknowledge that there really are some out there selfish enough to believe that life is all some grand playthrough of partisan game theory / prisoner's dilemma.

I’d maintain it’s still solid advice to assume good intent, repeatedly, despite - or especially when - being challenged by contrary impressions, until it’s simply no longer possible to continue assuming good intent.

Better to be naive and over-charitable than over-wary and mean.

It's important, nevertheless, to acknowledge that there really are some out there selfish enough to believe that life is all some grand playthrough of partisan game theory / prisoner's dilemma.

You mean they weren't playing when they started selling packages of "Plant Based Potatoes"?

Anyway - the markets dropped further since posting this. Sept was the worst month for the US market(and several others) since 2002 and 2022 has been the worst year in recorded history if it remains where it is right now, and it's going to fall so... this winter many people will need help.

As for the potato remark, my local grocery store has a vegan section and in it are packages of "Plant Based Potatoes"... no joke. Do people really not know potatoes come from the ground? I don't get it and they don't even look washed in the packages to be honest. Makes me laugh but is a scary statement of our "society" and leaders at the same time, ya know?

A tip on getting through what's coming globally. I grow a lot of my own food. Among my favorites are Yukon Gold potatoes, they are about the size of a tennis ball with thin skin.

My favorite Yukon Gold potato recipe.
- Wash a pot of potatoes
- Dump them onto a cookie sheet
- Bake for 25 mins at 350 degrees

That's literally it. No peeling, no wrapping in foil, no seasoning, no oil... just baked potatoes. I always have a couple pots of these potassium rich yummies in my fridge. When I want to eat them I slice them thinly, think pringle sclices, and they go great with ANY meals. They taste good with the flavor of literally everything else you make.

Try it. I even add them to a bowl of spaghetti. Stab one of these slices from the bottom as you scoop out some spaghetti and you're not going to drop any plus the texture is awesome. Once baked you can remove the peel with your fingers if you don't like it but I prefer to leave them on, they are thin with this type of potato.

Cheap, cheap, cheap... and I have lots for my neighbors if they need help.

No power? No problem, they bake over a camp fire. No water? No problem, they bake without anything extra, including water. Their skin is slightly waxy so they don't dry out... did I mention no peeling? Lots of potassium? Cheap?

If you're not preparing for hard times you are preparing for hard times.

If you have a favorite go to cheap filler that could stand alone in tough times, like potatoes or rice, please share. During the great depression potatoes were a staple food and parents would make one meal from the potatoes and save the skins to make another. I hope we're not heading for times tougher than those.

Aside:

That's twice you've used the word leader.

The members of our governments / administrations, regardless of the size of their ego and ambition are public servants.

In theory, if not always in practice.

In an inverted pyramid, they are at the bottom. They make decisions only insofar as we collectively permit them to.

I think you're right about this:

If you're not preparing for hard times you are preparing for hard times.

Though, for some of us, the hard times which started in 2007-08 have never really ended.

Given employment landscape, house prices, prevailing economic philosophy etc. I suspect there might be a correlation between how young you are and how miserable life has been generally for the last decade and a half - ie. if you're now in your thirties, your experience of life has been even harder than if you're now in your forties and if you're now in your mid to late twenties, harder still.

If you have a favorite go to cheap filler that could stand alone in tough times, like potatoes or rice,

I'm pretty sure I could boil some pasta and eat it with homemade sauce every day and never get bored. :-D That's pretty affordable.

I hope we're not heading for times tougher than those.

I regret that we likely are in the short term.

After that... it depends what socio-economic philosophies people vote for.

In the last couple of years (in the UK) we've had a number of freedoms curtailed and a substantial increase in trade friction.

I'd very much like to see that trade friction reduced and the freedoms restored as soon as possible.

I'd very much like to see that trade friction reduced and the freedoms restored as soon as possible.

Sad to say---once lost those are harder to get back!

Ronin, yes, I do say leaders because we elect them to make policy and I fully understand that elected leaders are civil servants. Unfortunately many people are acting like leaders despite not being elected(or accountable) and it's divisive. Example: Bank CEOs aren't elected leaders but they are acting like it when they cancel bank accounts for social reasons, without court order or crime. [msn.com...]

I have no opinion on the reasoning, the banks can do what they wish right or wrong, but when regular people see banks closing accounts because they don't like an opinion it divides further and people seek to protect themselves (even if they agree because they might find themselves on the wrong end someday). The number of people dealing with being cancelled is growing quickly this year, it's really divisive to see. Now isn't the time for division, IMO.

Update to the OP - Bank of America stock is down 35% year to date, they are laying off people, closing branches and 2 weeks ago said to expect the worst in 70 years but now they are saying everything is "good" and ignoring their own economists in their messaging. Fine. I hope everything actually is but I'd be a fool not to prepare.

Hope for the best, prepare for the worst, and let the elected leaders figure out the social and economic stuff, it's why we elect them and hold them accountable via our votes. Stay safe, friends.

100% chance of recession within a year, up from 65% last update - [msn.com...]

The latest recession probability models by Bloomberg economists Anna Wong and Eliza Winger forecast a higher recession probability across all timeframes, with the 12-month estimate of a downturn by October 2023 hitting 100%, up from 65% for the comparable period in the previous update.

100% chance of recession

Hmm. Have they run out of road to kick the 2007-08 GFC can down, then?

Mark Twain suggested that history doesn't repeat itself, but it rhymes.

I'm not sure that the Russian Federation advancing tanks into Ukraine 14 years after 2008 quite rhymes with the Third Reich advancing tanks into Poland 10 years after 1929.

But it feels like... assonance.

Look up Glass Steagall. It's important. This 1932 act which separated main street and investment banking was introduced too late to stop the 1930s culminating in 1939 (the damage was already done) but, I'm substantially persuaded that if the legislation hadn''t been repealed in 1999, we might have lived through an entirely different 2010s (to be fair, a less exuberant 2000s followed by a less hangover-like 2010s).

oi, at 9% inflation there's no can to kick.

There is also no point in assigning blame, math doesn't care.

Printing cash, spending it and giving it away might solve a lot of problems, or make matters worse but kick that can down the road, but they cannot fix inflation, they are the cause.

Inflation at 1% is good, at 2-3% is felt, at 4-5% causes recession, at 6-7% takes a generation to fix and past 8% becomes irrecoverable. We're at 9% and still printing and spending money like no tomorrow.

There will be a tomorrow, in what looks oddly like a 3rd world country of our own making. Regardless of what media blames, the spending was ours.

But don't give up hope! Having lived through three recessions in my life I'm pretty sure the collective we will eventually survive.

Belts tighten.

But as webmasters seeking a living we will see descending and depressing returns on effort for a few years. As in: "Things will get worse before they get better."

the spending was ours

An excellent point.

Governments may print and devalue their own currencies (for their own reasons) leading products and services to be re-priced (ie. they haven't gone up in value, but the currency has gone down in value), but, as consumers, we can respond by cutting services and products out of our standard consumption diet.

From Jan 2006 until Dec 2008 I had a gym subscription. Sometimes I went running / rowing / cross-training in the gym regularly, sometimes barely at all. It didn't matter. The subscription left my bank account every month. With less to spare from early 2009 onwards, I cancelled my gym subscription and over the next few years I took up first swimming, then cycling, and, eventually, I started running regularly in late 2014.

Eight years later, I still run today. It's not free. I need to invest in a good pair of running shoes every two years or so. And I have a subscription to Six Apart's fantastic Zombies, Run! interactive podcast. But it's all a vastly, vastly smaller outlay than when I had a gym subscription. And I go out running more often then I did back then. And when I go running, I run longer distances.

The rising cost of gym subscriptions has zero impact on that inflation I experience in my personal monthly expenditures,

Bottom line: our spending habits and the inflation we experience personally is a more important statistic than the headline inflation figures in the news.

In real life there will be cut backs (running for example) but how will we as webmasters deal with the rate of inflation regarding time, effort, and products?

See above: We will survive... but might be a bit of starvation along the way.

We're at 9% and still printing and spending money like no tomorrow.

If it's any consolation, it's headline news in the UK that inflation figures from last month are confirmed at 10.1%.

Food and drink inflation (specifically) is now at 14.5%.

Unless some clever mechanisms are built into the upcoming Hallowe'en Budget, Winter 2022 is going to be remembered for a long time.

- What would you do without a job?
- What would you do if you couldn't afford food?
- What would you do if you couldn't afford your electric bill?
- What can you do today to limit the potential impact these things would cause?
- etc.

If you know the answer already because you plan ahead it's peace of mind. It's all just challenges and choices, make good ones before they are made for you.

If you missed your chance and find yourself in a bad spot then keep your chin up, being poor is not a reflection of character, it's a reflection of economic times. Be helpful, volunteer if you can't find work, accept help but return it where and how you can. Don't get jaded, tough people survive tough times, and don't give up. You never know who or what will improve your fortunes but it can and will happen if you make good choices and keep your chin up.

Surviving hardships and coming out ahead later creates character and self-worth, don't give up, tough times pass. Suround youself with good people and look out for each other.

- What would you do without a job?
- What would you do if you couldn't afford food?

The issue with these sorts of questions is that they're explicitly individualist in tone - to the point where they seem to imply that individualism has a monopoly of mindshare, which, of course, it doesn't.

Yes, absolutely, you need to have some sort of strategy, insurance, defence, protection for when TSHTF, but probably, just as importantly, it's crucial to know that you're not on your own.

John Donne penned these lines in 1624, nearly four hundred years ago:

No man is an Iland, intire of itselfe; every man
is a peece of the Continent, a part of the maine;
[...]
any mans death diminishes me,
because I am involved in Mankinde;
And therefore never send to know for whom
the bell tolls; It tolls for thee.

but human society has existed for the last four hundred thousand years, if not longer.

Better to pay slim heed to the neo-liberals' attempts in the last half century to diminish (or even eradicate) society and replace it with resource-individualism.

It is unlikely they will succeed.

We're all individuals working together.

We're all individuals working together.

That's certainly true.

We could say the same of stars which make up our galaxy - but we tend to regard our sun as an individual star, rather than a sub-component of a balletic formation of one hundred thousand million stars.

We could say the same of the cells which make up our body - but we tend to regard each of the 37.2 trillion cells in our body as sub-components of us, not as individual organisms.

Our sun gives us life, the others don't.

Besides, Bloomberg says the stars are fine, let's just stick to finances.

let's just stick to finances

Sure, okay.

What would you do if you couldn't afford food?

I don't know what the Food Bank landscape is like on the western side of the Atlantic, but here in the UK, the following House of Commons Library Research Briefing details that:

There are over 1,400 Trussell Trust food banks in the UK, in addition to at least 1,172 independent food banks.

Source: Food Banks in the UK Research Briefing
https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-8585/

The same briefing reports that:

In its May 2021 State of Hunger report, the Trussell Trust estimated around 2.5% of all UK households (700,000) used a food bank in 2019-20, prior to the outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic.

If we assume an average of 2 people per household, that's 1.4 million people who couldn't afford food in 2019-20 in the UK, prior to the outbreak of Covid-19 in Jan-March 2020.

The same briefing reports that Trussell Trust foodbanks distributed significantly more three-day emergency food parcels during the first year of Covid-19 but that figure dropped again in 2021-22 - though the distribution figure between 31 March 2021 and 1 April 2022 (2.1 million food parcels) still represents an increase of 14% compared to the year 2019-2020.

So, if I've read this right, that's nearly 1.6 million people in the UK who couldn't afford to cover all of their food during Mar 2021 - Apr 2022.

N.B. These are figures to take note of - you can't simply turn up to a food bank when you feel like it. Instead, the Trussell Trust states:

professionals such as health visitors, staff at schools and social workers identify people in crisis and issue them with a food bank voucher. This means people can receive a food bank parcel of three days’ nutritionally balanced, non-perishable food from their local food bank.

Source: https://www.trusselltrust.org/what-we-do/how-foodbanks-work/

That's the backdrop even before today's cost of living crisis and fuel price inflation.

With food poverty and fuel poverty at currently levels (and presumably rising), we are looking at what will be for many people, the worst winter in their lives. That could be north of two million people - nearly 3% of the country's population.

I'm seriously considering volunteering in a Food Bank this winter.

It may be that local food banks don't need volunteers, but at this point, I think it's worth making enquiries.

>> considering volunteering ... worth making enquiries

I'd encourage you to figure out a way to help ... time, money, or both.

When we make donations to non-local causes we make a point of matching them with donations to our local food bank.

This thread has reached its natural conclusion, and thanks for your participation.