Going back to April 2009... that long discussion with "elsewhen", "silverbytes" and others, the subject of payouts was understandably complex. Someone mentioned payouts of 65% from an old Google document?

Is there any more recent payout data for like 2009? I'm trying to do revenue projections for a startup website. Projections are for myself, not external financial people. I want to pick conservative numbers.. anyone care to offer any? There must be a reasonable range I can work with to create several scenarios.

This represents a 21% increase from fourth quarter 2008

What a coincidence. I'm showing a 21% decrease.

Funny how that works...

Funny how that works...

Add in the fact that publishers increase at a rate faster than advertisers. But yes, with the "ceiling" as well as other statistical mysteries, it's no surprise Google is reeling in huge profits.

What a coincidence. I'm showing a 21% decrease.

Funny how that works...

Mine is similar. It really feels like Google is taking advantage of the economic downturn to squeeze publishers.

From all the posts I see over the last 12 months... I'd better have great if not unique content and don't put all your revenue eggs in the adsense basket.

We have seen our Adsense earnings go up about 30% this past year, mostly due to the increase in font size back in June of 2009.

Google is taking advantage of the economic downturn to squeeze publishers

Nah, they would do anything like that!

And your check is in the mail and I won't ...

"Google co-founders to sell $5.5B combined in stock"

Cashing in before it's too late? What do they know that we don't?

if you earn $5,000/mo say, assuming that they split revenues 50/50 you are 0.00001 of their revenue. Which means that a single publisher's account of that size is totally unimportant to Google.

if you earn $5,000/mo say, assuming that they split revenues 50/50 you are 0.00001 of their revenue. Which means that a single publisher's account of that size is totally unimportant to Google.

Thanks for making me utterly worthless.

Thanks for making me utterly worthless.

Welcome to my world brother...

Google is taking advantage of the economic downturn to squeeze publishers

This is a publicly traded company with shareholders to answer to. Shareholders who expect return on their investment.

When you cut corners, as you might be inclined to do in an economic downturn, you do so in a manner that will least impact the overall health and welfare of the company at large. If they take a bit more from Adsense publishers to satisfy projected earnings, the end result is likely to be a lot of whining and gnashing of teeth among publishers but that's about it. Publishers will threaten to bail and some might actually do it. Most will tighten their belts and stay though. Cry all you want but this is still the best game in town and Google knows that.

they take a bit more from Adsense publishers to satisfy projected earnings

Right, and the program is setup in such a way where they can payout as much or as little as they want. All legal and in accordance with the terms publishers agreed upon.

The recent dumping of billions in shares by the insiders is always a bad sign. Google needs to figure out a way to make alot of money from other sources and fast. It appears that they're at least trying.

The recent dumping of billions in shares by the insiders is always a bad sign.

Source?

Google "google shares" and look at the news results.

Well

[google.com.au...]

Didn't produce much, if anything, most certainly nothing in relation to very serious allegations of "insider trading".

Is the news being censored?

What bugs me from the last couple years is the way some people twist facts to make them fit their worldview. Can we keep that crap off WebmasterWorld, please?

For instance, the founders of Google arranged the sale of their stock years ago, as an effort to diversify their assets. Not only is it a sound financial decision, it was dictated years ago. It's an automatic sale. Characterizing that sale as dumping is a distortion of facts. Let's stick to the truth. The truth does not need embellishment. Truth does not need to be spun or embellished.

From here on out, let's stick to the topic under discussion, which is discussing the amount that Google splits with publishers, a figure that is not known by anyone outside of Google.

@IanCP I assume this story is what was referred to:
[webmasterworld.com...]

I have long changed the business strategy of receiving only a few percents of total revenues from Adsense. It was the best move I ever done, specially during the early years which generated me a 6 figure amount from Adsense. Revenues with Adsense is still good but the numbers go more and more down, so it doesn't really matter.

Diversify is the name of the game :)

discussing the amount that Google splits with publishers, a figure that is not known by anyone outside of Google.

Makes for a short discussion MB since, as you stated, no one outside Google knows this number.

Your point is well taken though.

In previous years, respondents here have looked at Google's annual report and divided 'amount from content network' by 'expenses of content network'?
Sure, there's the variability of different people getting smart priced, and premium publishers getting a higher percentage, but overall it should show whether the 'amount to publishers' is going up or down.
Or are they no longer breaking out those numbers?

Sure, there's the variability of different people getting smart priced, and premium publishers getting a higher percentage...

Well, I think that's just it. Without knowing those numbers, how many publishers are getting smart priced, how many are not... How many new publishers are signing up, how many are leaving the program in search of greener pastures, what can we really say about that amount being paid out? We don't know how many new Adwords advertisers are being signed up each quarter, how many are leaving. We don't know how many advertisers are increasing their spend, how many are cutting back. We don't know very much at all.

Suppose Googles overall payout to Adsense publishers was less this quarter. There are a number of ways this could be explained (and we aren't given a fraction of the information necessary to make even an informed guess). More advertisers quitting the content network, more publishers bailing out in favor of alternate ad serving programs, direct advertising, etc, etc... Mesothelioma type ads being replaced by "Mom's apple pie" type ads... these are just a few of the factors that would impact publisher payouts.

Think about it. What do we really know about adsense payouts? We know what we get each month and that is it.

You can argue that Adsense numbers are proprietary information that could be worth billions in the hands of competitors, thus the total lockdown on disclosure, and on the surface this looks like a pretty good argument. How would we know though?

Or you can argue that this non-disclosure is intentionally built into the program for no other reason than to conceal publisher pay cuts. Again, how would we know? We don't have enough information to do anything but sit here and guess.

It makes for interesting thread fodder but that's about all it is.