if Google gave up on the Content Network?

Thats Googles cash cow, its going nowhere.

Mack.

2: I expect it to continue to change over time, but not go away.

2: Direct ad sales, maybe some affiliate stuff, other ad networks, etc.

1. Adsense will change (HAS to). There are many things to improve but more than than: to fix. I studied a case years ago about a product. The sales increased, so the company was happy but... it wasn't because the product was great... The kind of product required you to buy more to get the same (actually a drop in quality) just like Adsense.

I won't go beyond this comment to stay on the subject, but rather than complaining about the earnings, many webmasters see this change in Adsense, requiring more to earn the same (not ad blindness related). Google is happy by now but G needs more and more publishers to earn the same. Now many bloggers and low quality sites are on the Adsense program. Ad blindness and users NOT doing any clicks is really, something different.

I think G does not put the same effort on Adsense as before, just like the thread says "ok, is working, let see if this thing can work by itself while we do other things"

2. Some of my sites apply for direct Ad sales, hard in my area but doable. I have some other sites that are attractive to some of my competitors, some of them have a whole business going on (like designing, painting and selling widgets door to door) so my sites would come handy. I think of this very often: planning the sites with two goals in mind, not only one (adsense).

I think of adsense going away but then think of advertising on TV. TV ads have been around for about 65 years and are still doing the job for which they are intended.

Perhaps in the future some technique or technology will bring interest back to ads. Just think of the super bowl - people actually love to watch the ads.

Maybe something beyond personalized search or interest based ads. How about when we control the computer with our thoughts and google shows ads based on what we are thinking at the moment. I'd have to do my surfing from a locked room.

1. Do you think Adsense will grow, become stagnant, or cease to exist over the next 5 years?

Grow, but at a slower rate.

2. How would you monetize your website if Google gave up on the Content Network?

That's not going to happen, but if it did, I'd just switch to one of the other networks. There will alway be a need for aggregation.

[edited by: incrediBILL at 11:32 pm (utc) on Dec. 27, 2009]
[edit reason] fixed formatting [/edit]

TV ads have been around for about 65 years and are still doing the job for which they are intended.

Yes, but television has been used primarily for one purpose--watching television programs. People often watched commercials whether they wanted to or not. However, if you listen to some ad execs talk, they are a little concerned with the arrival of digital recorders that allow viewers to skip ads.

Computers are different. People surfing the web don't have to pay attention to the 300x250 ad block in the middle of their screen. They don't have to wait for the commercial (ad) to be over--they can simply ignore it, or close it... (if it's one of those annoying floating ads).

With ad blindness arguably beginning to set in--and the growing mobile Internet taking shape--it is likely that traditional (content network) online ad expenditures will begin to decline. Most mobile sites I've seen--especially the sites of big name businesss--don't have ads. If they do, they have very few. Go to Reuters, or ESPN on the web, then go to Reuters or ESPN on a mobile device and view their mobile sites (which are often served by default).

Also: I know lots of people who haven't embraced, or caught up with the Internet age. Either they have fought against it, or never spent the money to pay for high bandwidth access and/or computers. It is very likely that millions will begin using the Internet via mobile devices without ever having used a traditional PC/Mac to surf the web. When every mobile phone is an Internet-enabled smartphone, traditional online advertising might take a big hit.

Well, I guess I could answer my own questions! :)

1. I think Adsense will level off over the next 5 years. I see Google growing its business in several areas, but text ads on websites might not be their biggest earner. Maybe if there's a change in the way ads are formatted, delivered, etc.

2. My main site was never designed to host text ads, and my niche doesn't rake in the $$$ with Adsense. But it does make money through affiliate networks. Plus, the site makes money through other affiliations that are not ad-based.

Great question. Considering we give Adsense the best real estate on our site, we would try direct ad sales to the same companies running Adwords campaigns on our site right now.

We would also do more with affiliate programs. We don't now due to lack of effective ad real estate, since Adsense takes up all the prime spots.

They don't have to wait for the commercial (ad) to be over--they can simply ignore it, or close it...

Wrong, sometimes there are 15 second video clips you HAVE to watch. These are common with both video content and sports gametrackers.

You could ignore it I guess, but then again you can ignore tv ads by looking away.

Wrong, sometimes there are 15 second video clips you HAVE to watch. These are common with both video content and sports gametrackers.

Yes, but you're speaking specifically about video content, which is akin to television programs. Actually, most are simply television/video programs posted online.

Most of us aren't Home Depot, or BMW, and won't get a 15-second commercial ad spot in front of an ESPN highlight video.

I'm speaking mainly about the content network which includes millions of sites hosting text-based ads. It's those ads that are not appearing on mobile websites.

Folks watching television shows online, or sports highlights have learned to expect commercials--just like traditional television. But IMO, it's much easier to ignore text-based ad blocks found on millions of publisher websites.

Poor Payouts is as Good as Shutting the Door on Publishers.

After seeing the falling trend for 3 months, swiftly started establishing contact with related sites / products focused on brand building, A&M for our network. Got rid of 160x600 and 336x280 Sizes and gave it to these fixed sponsors and kept Google with 300x250. Payouts are slightly higher than what i earned from Google AdSense [Payout may have hit the Trough, and slightly higher may not make much sense, but what if AdSense was a falling knife, atleast managed to arrest it] but the biggest relief comes from the anxiety of what is Google going to do tomorrow, how are my earnings going to change etc. This helped me focus on Developing and Building more.

Be on the lookout for Advertisers, but personally I don't get ambitious to auction Ads, but give scope for long term revenue visibility, even though less would do and focus on what my primary goal is.

Keep producing original content and building services that can produce the same [content]. After the shakeout, the Ad rates will likely go up again, by then your inventory would be enviable.

Even if G did shut down AdSense, by then serious advertisers that are using the content network will probably have tracked publisher sites enough to know where to go looking for ad space.

I figure other networks will be clamoring for the space that Adsense used to occupy on sites and blogs should Goog choose to end it all. Anyway, I believe there will always be a Sergei Brin and Larry Page being born every half-decade or so.

This year G. hired a CFO that is an adult and he started trimming bogus costs. Google had grown to be wasting a WHOLE lot of money in recent years, and some of the insanity just had to go from a sense of sound business practice. The company is growing out of its infanthood and starting to make at least a few mature decisions. Just because G is not flushing as much $$$$$ down the drain as before hardly means its going to dump its major cash source.

Many, many businesses have trimmed excess spending in 2009 - certainly the vast majority of businesses in the US. Google is only one of them but Google just happened to be one with a HUGE amount of fat to trim away.

1. Do you think Adsense will grow, become stagnant, or cease to exist over the next 5 years?

It will be around, but not relevant any longer. Two reasons for this: eCPM will decline due to publishers adding more ad real estate to the program. Declining eCPM may be compensated by growing traffic for some time, but this won't go on forever. When overall payout drops, sites will look for alternatives.

Quality sites will drop out earlier in order to avoid being connected to the low ad quality of the program.

2. How would you monetize your website if Google gave up on the Content Network?

Affiliates for the respective niches, and accepting direct advertisers. (Since we dropped Adsense a while ago, we are doing this already. The payout is slightly better than with Adsense.)

If adsense for content died off tomorrow, small info sites like mine would also maybe die off..

My e comm site would ofcourse not be affected.

1. Do you think Adsense will grow, become stagnant, or cease to exist over the next 5 years?

AdSense has had its huge growth spurt, it will mature and will continue just like classified advertising exists however I feel that the biggest problem is for the advertisers who will have to consider investing more in better graphical ads just as in the off-line world.

Classifieds work ok however some of my advertisers who have gone down this route have reported fantatstic results with a series of matching banner ads across all ad sizes.

Quite simply ads will have to become more sophisticated to attract a more savvy and discerning audience and this may actually lead to higher CTRs and EPCs for many widget specialists.

2. How would you monetize your website if Google gave up on the Content Network?

No difference to me however I'm pretty sure most of the AdWorders know my sites well enough by now and they're unlikely to want to change their successful form of advertising too drastically.

1. Do you think Adsense will grow, become stagnant, or cease to exist over the next 5 years?

It might or might not grow, but I hope that it evolves with more features available to the average publisher. Stagnant? maybe. Cease to exist? doubtful.

2. How would you monetize your website if Google gave up on the Content Network?

I might not bother unless I was given an offer that I just couldn't refuse. My sites exist for the pure love of creating them and sharing what I know. That's how they were started and that's why they'll continue to exist and grow. With or without Google.

1. Do you think Adsense will grow, become stagnant, or cease to exist over the next 5 years?

Adsense will grow slowly, but I believe more and more advertisers will look to the content network for both lower rates and new markets. (This is probably already happening, as budgets were squeezed over the past 18 months and advertisers tested other options.)

2. How would you monetize your website if Google gave up on the Content Network?

Just like I do now, diversifying with CPM networks and direct ad sales. Can't keep all the eggs in one basket, you know.

if google quit the content network, a competitor would replace them.

This is roughly like asking what one would do if Starbucks decided to stop selling coffee, Exxon stopped selling gasoline, Bank of America stopped taking deposits and all the farmers killed the geese that laid their golden eggs.

If Google shuts down AdSense in our lifetimes, it will most likely be because the global economy has faded into history and we are back to trading beads around the campfire. My immediate plans in that event will be centered mostly around avoiding hungry bears, mountain lions and wild pigs.

I thought it'd be over by last August.

This is roughly like asking what one would do if Starbucks decided to stop selling coffee, Exxon stopped selling gasoline, Bank of America stopped taking deposits and all the farmers killed the geese that laid their golden eggs.

If it were that easy, a lot of folks would have tried it by now. But many will tell you that Google's game is the best in town right now.

Moving my money from Bank of America to ING is easy; filling up my tank at BP instead of Exxon is easy. But for a lot of publishers, working with advertisers directly (and incorporating different ad formats into a site without the help of Google), or diversifying (like others have mentioned) is not always an easy task. Adsense--in its simplicity--was designed so that publishers wouldn't have to worry about that process.

2: Subscriptions or micro payments using Zong.

I think Adsense will still be around in substantially the same format.

Adsense is not my only income stream by any means, but nothing gets near being as profitable. I would just have to do more direct selling of ad space and more affiliates. However, if people wee not putting their advertising budget into adwords, then presumably direct advertising and other forms of advertising feeds would develop.

I am a little surprised that no one ( other than me ), thinks adSense is important for small websites.. or no one here has any small websites and all are big players?

Everyone has back up plans ready? I better start thinking on those lines..

I am a little surprised that no one ( other than me ), thinks adSense is important for small websites.. or no one here has any small websites and all are big players?

I sort of alluded to it here:

But for a lot of publishers, working with advertisers directly (and incorporating different ad formats into a site without the help of Google), or diversifying (like others have mentioned) is not always an easy task.

In fact, when I started this thread, I wasn't thinking much about the big players. Most of them probably have direct ad sales relationships already. If they don't, it would likely be easier for them to make the adjustment if the Content Network diminishes significantly.

The small publishers, on the other hand, find a lot of convenience within the Google Adsense environment. They may not have the expertise--(seeking out advertisers, managing the display of ad campaigns, and accepting payments)--on their own.

Good points about small vs large publishers. My largest site does attract direct advertisers (who contact me), and that would be relatively easy to monetize, although overall I would probably earn less through direct ads versus AdSense. The smaller ones... I dunno, I guess I'd put up crappy network display ads that pay like $.30 CPM.

Serious advertisers that are using the content network will probably have tracked publisher sites enough to know where to go looking for ad space.

I think this is already happening. Most performance marketers realise that most of their best traffic come from a few sites so it makes sense to just site-target them.

However, the reason why marketers won't be in a hurry to approach you directly is simply because Google's ad targeting technology and reporting is better than what most webmasters offer i.e OpenX, or worse none at all.

To get 100% of their ad spend, you'll have to either build your own technology that does contextual and interest targeting (like Facebook Ads) or simply search on Google for a good self-service ad platform.

[google.com ].

My biggest site was banned from adsense for some reason, I had no choice but to find an alternatives and was surprised that the site earned even more. It became cluttered a bit though with different combinations of ads on the site. But the fear that one day the site would no longer bring income has gone as it no longer depends on adsense alone.