My highest earning site has seen eCPM fall by at least 35% over the past few months, the second site has seen it fall by over 50%. My hobby sites, which I enjoy most but don't earn so much, are fine.

CTR has remained good on all of them and page views have jumped significantly over the same period. That combined with the £ / $ exchange rate has seen overall earnings up. The fall of the pound against the dollar has been truly spectacular.

I reckon eCPM will fall further in 2009 and well into 2010 before it recovers. We may even have a full scale depression, in which case it will be many years before the situation starts to recover.

I don't think that decreasing eCPM is due to other advertising channels taking a bigger chunk, the reverse seems to be true. It's just an overall cut back on advertising spend.

It's affecting most sites I think and if that's true then some of them will decide to pack up shop because the earnings simply don't warrant the effort. That may help the remaining sites in the medium term.

If your page views are increasing as you say and CTR is not falling too rapidly then stick with it. You are probably doing better than most. When the upturn comes, you will be in a fine position to take advantage of the inflationary whirlwind which is sure to occur given the amount of false money which is being pumped into the world economy.

When the next inflation whirlwind starts to self-destruct then it's time to cash in everything and go live somewhere like India. Live like a lord on $50 a day!

Live like a lord on $50 a day!

Heavens...when was the last time you were in India?

Those days have long gone :-(

On my site:

- EPC continues to be strong. (Back to 2003-2004 levels.)

- CTR is down quite a bit from the same time last year. Some of that may be due to how I'm using AdSense, and Google may also have a stricter definition of "valid click" than it did a year ago, but I'd guess that many users aren't clicking because they aren't in a spending mood.

With all other things being equal, I'd rather see strong EPC with weak CTR than the opposite. Why? Because it means advertiser demand is strong, and revenue should grow nicely when my readers feel confident enough to spend money again.

My eCPM has held up pretty well, which I think makes sense given the advertisers I see on my site. I expect it to get even better when the economy starts to pick up again, whenever that is.

Traffic up, EPC up, CTR way down, eCPM down a little. Could be worse I guess, but it's not doing any better.

In other words it's taking more and more traffic to maintain earnings, a sign that the economy isn't spending as much on advertising.

Adsense earnings really do not necessarily correlate well with traffic changes due to a variety of factors, especially smart pricing. You will find the more traffic / flat or decreased earnings complaint here and other web forums from many publishers for years even before the recession started.

Husky Pup, you have destroyed my entire life's plan with a stroke of your pen. So where can I go in the world and live like a lord on 50 a day?

I ask because the inflation whirlwind might not happen and we may move briskly into a period of severe stagflation. I need a plan B for events like that.

P.S. It must be warm, I'e done Russia (north), it's cheap but it's not funny even at the best of times. Stepped off a kirb into what I thought was the road and disapeared into 30cm/12in of very, very cold water.

P.S. It must be warm, I'e done Russia (north), it's cheap but it's not funny even at the best of times. Stepped off a kirb into what I thought was the road and disapeared into 30cm/12in of very, very cold water.

At least it wasn't filled with poisonous snakes, alligators, or crocodiles. :-)

Might there be a case for asking for benchmarking in Adsense.
Have looked at the benchmarking occassionaly in GA- might become useful one day (need to be able to refine it further to be able to comparewith similarsite/locations)

nomis5, India for 50US$ per day is fine. 1500US$ per month should be fine per month. You can rent a basic but nice studio for 300US$ per month, food 300US$ per month etc.

"asinah" it depends what kind of lifestyle (and where, like New Delhi, Mumbai) you live. 1500$ is enough for someone and less for others.

You can NOT set a rule for everyone.

It's like China now, it's expensive in the big cities with the class of new rich, smaller towns are way cheaper.

Has the recession affected your ecpm...

Yes. Down 30% year-on-year, starting October 2008. (At the same time, EPC is pinned at pre-drop level as if there was no economic turmoil at all.)

...and will it bounce back in 2009?

No. Google now knows that I still show Adsense ads despite a 30% reduction in price. Unless some strong competitor comes up (a global player capable of running a contextual ad network) Google would be stupid to increase price again. They are not that stupid.

ecpm down (UK) but GBP earnings stable because of the exchange rate.

Exactly the same as piatkow too. Looking through my stats, things started nose-diving in the first few days of September, 2008.

zett, I agree. In the absence of serious competition, Google Adsense payout is unlikely to return to pre-recession levels.

If I were them, I would milk it for all its worth, until web publishers switch to alternative sources of revenue or when competition increases.

Unfortunately, adsense publishers may have to suffer the consequences of such business logic.

Of course, for some publishers, pre-recession levels were no better than they are now, so for us the question of whether or not current levels will "return" to that level is moot.

Personally, I don't see any evidence that Google is fiddling with my earnings and I don't quite understand the basis for the assumption that Google can and does adjust the payout % for individual sites...

In general

50% more page impressions, but eCPM 60% down

This makes 40% less earnings.

Google now knows that I still show Adsense ads despite a 30% reduction in price.

More to the point, your advertisers know they can buy clicks for 30 percent less than they could earlier. Or maybe you've been whacked by "smart pricing."

Fact is, not everyone is seeing a drop in earnings per click, and for some topics and/or sites, average EPC is up from a year ago. It's all about supply and demand.

your advertisers know they can buy clicks for 30 percent less than they could earlier

Nope, signor.

Average longterm EPC is rock solid - for 250+ days by now. No indication of financial crisis. No indication of seasonality. No indication of ANY change. Weird. This can not be explained easily.

So where can I go in the world and live like a lord on 50 a day?

It really does depend how you expect to live and the facilities at your disposal.

Beach hut and nice bar etc and Internet close by is still possible but that gets boring after a while, city centre or nice suburb in most large towns and cities and it can become as expensive as western prices.

Sure there are exceptions however you really have to be "in the know" to benefit.

I'm told there are a lot of repossessions in Dubai right now!

</ducks>

We need a new thread similar to AdSense Island of a few years ago, the price of that must have come down now too?

"so where can I go in the world and live like a lord on 50 a day?"

I've done it before. In a little village, with wireless internet access, a laptop, and for less than 15 US per day.

It had palm trees, pyramids, sunshine, and was two hours away from a city populated by more than 16 million inhabitants, all the amenities. (not included in the $15.00)

all the amenities. (not included in the $15.00)

And therein lies the question "What facilities do you require?"

It's possible to live in many western countries for $50 a day but not if you expect to go clubbing, fine dining and a myriad of other not cheap entertainment and all in relative safety.

I could easily live in India or Egypt on this but would I be happy? Would you be happy?

We are taking some hits lately. With record breaking traffic and pageviews, we are seeing static revenue from Adsense... So basically we are holding ship while traffic climbs.

Other ad partners are affected as well. We had a CPM deal with another ad provider fall through. We lost about 50% revenue on that drop.

CPM's for banners are down as well.

Affiliate products in certain markets are dropping as well. We use to do fairly well with credit/financial products, etc, but now that market has fallen off the face of the earth...

So I tell my wife to cut back on the shopping from every day to every other day... Let's hope I don't have to cut it back to every 3rd day... You guys may never hear from me again... ;-)

I just looked, I'm within a couple bucks of what I did last March, and that's with two fewer sites. Plus my CTR is actually higher, although eCPM is down. I've also put a lot more other types of ads in rotation with the AdSense blocks. January and February weren't great, but overall, the difference between last year and this year same time is maybe a couple tanks of gas (PT Cruiser - 15 gallon tank)

The real test will be when I hit my peak season. My traffic is twice what it was last year, so far in 2009.

So I tell my wife to cut back on the shopping from every day

Every day? Sheeesh.. you're doing your part to stimulate the economy..