So far today my EPC is less than my daily average however that happens every day for my sites since, I assume, the early morning India/Middle East/Eastern Europe clicks pay less than Western Europe/US clicks.

I have no idea whether my assumption is correct, just one of those gut feelings!

Count me in. I'm definitely seeing the new trend.

CTR down ~~30%, EPC up ~~30%.

Interesting to see if this is a permanent change (=Google now removes invalid clicks direcly so that they are no longer visible in the stats, or something), or some sort of a experiment, or (yet another) mishap.

How can anyone speak of a "trend" when the day is less than eight hours old?

I don't think we see clicks in real-time. If so, then any day-to-day trends seen would be entirely imaginary. The check you cash each month, now that's real.

How can anyone speak of a "trend" when the day is less than eight hours old?

I agree. It's rare (I know, I know), but still, I agree. :-)

Given the huge fluctuations -even on a day-by-day base-, I'd start to speak of a "trend" if the change in the data set holds up for at least 30 days. And even then...

I changed in the night most of my domains to a new speed optimization system

* html compressed delivery
* all buttons in one graphic

This speeds up page loading, but as a side effect,
it could be that the AdSense ads are relative to the content a little bit later.

How can anyone speak of a "trend" when the day is less than eight hours old?

So, if your income drops 99%, you usually wait like, what 28573279743587 years to make sure you get the stats right and correct and fine and counterbalanced and dandy and precise and historically accurate? ;-D

If my stats (after 8 hours) are completely different than ever before(!) during the previous (thousands++ of) adsense days (after 8 hours) I'm starting to explore what's happening, to react properly - preferably sooner than later. :-)

I just don't understand people who check their stats/code/server/email once per 2 months, and then cry about all their lost money because they were kicked out of adsense for failing to react to an offical email during the required two days or something.

Maybe "trend" is not the most precise word to use here, but it's clear enough that information flows from person to person, and that's precise enough for me (if a volcano erupts, would you stop to argue about the precise words, or would you run). IMO: Words like "glitch" have too much of a different meaning/tone to be used in this case anyways.

If you have enough traffic and if you know your hour-to-hour ECP variation you can easily spot new "trends".

We live in a speedy (global online) world, where the planet's most powerful bank/investor can go out of business in weeks, or in days (just what has recently happened). The days when people used ancient things like yearly quarters to form basis for calculations are at some level over.

All I know is: I have never ever seen these kinds of numbers at this time of the day in my stats during my years with Adsense. No chances in code/pages/etc. I rather be active and informed, than just passively wait for this millennium to pass by.

And somebody is most concerned after a big change of technic. Is the new technology causing unwanted side effects or is it a new trend.

I made today some videos loading web sites with a cell phone.

At the line begin seconds after hiting return

website with new technolog, compressed delivery,
all buttons in one graphic

3 Content
5 First thumbnail pic in content
8 all 5 thumbnail pics content
18 navigation, Google searchbox
20 120x90 AdLink
21 300x250 Ad
22 336x280 Ad 200x90 AdLink
26 Logo starts
34 Buttons
56 Javascript creates additional navigation
67 Background visible

website with samt layout, but old technology

4 Content Bildrahmen
6 navigation
8 Google searchbox
11 First thumbnail pic in content
16 All thumbnail pics in content
23 120x90 AdLink
23 300x250 Ad
26 336x280 Ad 200x90 AdLink
40 javascript creates additional navigation
58 Logo
128 Background

I noticed, that the thumbnails in content started long before the AdSense ads started, so I just test a new sequence of the code.

Old code

content
AdSense 120x90
AdSense 300x250
AdSense 336x280
AdSense 200x90
navigation

New code

AdSense 120x90
AdSense 300x250
content
AdSense 336x280
AdSense 200x90
navigation

I hope this shows up the first 2 AdSense ads much faster.

Now after nearly the half day is over compared to last Monday at the same time

5% more impressions
20% less clicks
25% less revenues

So there are all reasons for PANIC!

BTW, cell phones are ideal to test the load speed of a web site, they show the whole process in absolut slow motion

Yesterday (Feb 1) was excellent, but today is just plain rockin' for no reason whatsoever. If this becomes a trend (I agree, 8 hours is too short a time to call a trend... give it at least 10 days), I will be overjoyed in addition to being early retired.

So far for Feb 2 - CTR up. EPC up dramtically. 100% improvement on averages.

No doubt will return to normal tomorrow

So, if your income drops 99%, you usually wait like, what 28573279743587 years to make sure you get the stats right and correct and fine and counterbalanced and dandy and precise and historically accurate? ;-D

You needn't wait 2857329743587 years, but you might save yourself some stress by not paying too much attention to your AdSense numbers before the end of the day. Reports sometimes lag, and "click dumps" aren't uncommon.

i call it the superbowl trend

I don't know about you but I find checking my AdSense stats on an hourly basis turns into an emotional roller coaster. It doesn't matter much what happens during the day because click dumps are common and what matters is what happened yesterday (those stats are final).

We live in a speedy (global online) world

Bah, we actually live in a ADD world. Anything really important for me with Adsense manifests itself over many weeks and I have to compare it to a good ole 3 months moving average. Then I can make some sense out of it. But the day to day action is just noise and unnecessary excitement, like rolling dices. Sometimes when I have a really bad day I may check the forum to see if anyone else is feeling the blow, but to call anything a "new trend" out of a few hours is premature.

And yes for the record, my 3 months average is stalling big time and today kinda sucks.

Today Tuesday, I will see the importance of timing

At the line begin seconds after hiting return

website with new technolog, compressed delivery,
all buttons in one graphic

3 Content
5 First thumbnail pic in content
8 all 5 thumbnail pics content
18 navigation, Google searchbox
20 120x90 AdLink
21 300x250 Ad
22 336x280 Ad 200x90 AdLink
26 Logo starts
34 Buttons
56 Javascript creates additional navigation
67 Background visible

I moved now 2 AdSense units before the content,
this changes the load time like this:

3 content and navigation text
8 120x90 AdLink Google searchbox
9 300x250 Ad
11 336x280 Ad 200x90 AdLink
13 First thumbnail pic in content
16 all 5 thumbnail pics content
25 Buttons
51 Javascript creates additional navigation
80 Background visible

So the changes shows at last in ultra slow motion loading with the cell phone a significant change when the ads are shown.

Same layout, only load time optimization, can effect CTR:

Now the nearly complete Monday stats: compared to monthly average of January

Domains not changed to new tech, html uncompressed, many small pics

7% more impressions
5% less CTR
4% less earnings

Domains changed to new tech, html gz compressed, one pic with all buttons and logos

20% more impressions
29% less CTR
25% less earnings

So my conclusion:

It was a very bad Monday, Mondays are usual well above monthly average.

But improving load speed of the content showed the ads later, decreasing CTR also.

I hope my solution for the situation, move 2 AdSense units in the code before the content, solves the disaster.

Domains not changed to new tech, html uncompressed, many small pics

7% more impressions
5% less CTR
4% less earnings

Domains changed to new tech, html gz compressed, one pic with all buttons and logos

20% more impressions
29% less CTR
25% less earnings

Changed Tuesday in the early morning all new tech domains to have 2 AdSense codes before the content.

Again compared to monthly average from January

Domains not changed to new tech, html uncompressed, many small pics

2% more impressions
7% less CTR
16% less earnings

Domains changed to new tech, html gz compressed, one pic with all buttons and logos

12% more impressions
20% less CTR
14% less earnings

Statistics based on about 10000 page impressions per group, so not enough to have security at such small differences.

Special problem, the "old tech group" is in an area not so much influenced by the economic crisis.

I am finding February starting out EXTREMELY low in terms of CTR (down 30% from January), and ECPM down accordingly, with Tuesday being the lowest ever recorded (by far) in five years on various and diverse mid-sized sites which range from 25K to 100K impressions a day.

Perhaps the January recovery from December (but still year-over-year lower performance than the previous ones in terms of CTR and ECPM) was due to New Year's resolutions and activity. Traffic is higher than ever (by 20%), so people ARE browsing. But the downward trend continues since September with great alacrity.

(Aside: Perhaps the Obama honeymoon is over and people are scared that despite his rhetoric, which I do not question is backed by intelligence, he does not walk on water and cannot turn around the economy -- by his own more-and-more frequent admissions -- in the near term of even one year. Trillions are needed to be injected for infrastructure according to a long-term study by engineers who give the U.S. a solid "D," bad loan management without a sense that the banks have offered full disclosure, lack of confidence in the core of Capitalism itself where the corporations are allowed an exemption with Socialist protections when they fail, etc., and people may be realizing that the solution is over his head and those who advise him, and are "hunkering down" for a long, long recession/depression.)

Certainly no advertiser or webmaster/SEO person is exempt from the huge market forces at work here, and we may be feeling the weight in the coming months.

CTR yesterday was at a 2 years low... but EPC is at an 1 year high, which absorbs the damage. It feels like consumers aren't interested but the advertisers left are paying up the dough to get them. Good thing I have a few sites on different topics because one site seems to be agonizing.

[edited by: koan at 10:05 am (utc) on Feb. 4, 2009]

Same findings here honestman, our traffic is as high as it's even been but the CTR is down 10% and eCPM down around 20% (this is across multiple high traffic sites).

Yesterday was the worst I've seen in years for eCPM, and I can't see any reason why.

In my case, contrary to the recent trend of EPC going up, it has been down 30% this month at all-time levels to go along with the lower CTR and eCPM previously mentioned. But it may be too early to see a trend, though you can definitely see the classic line graph moving downwards since September.

It may be the economy and current psychology as the U.S. and the world bleeds jobs, but when such changes happen of a sudden, it makes one wonder if the underlying calculations are changing or the bids are going down in a very steep manner.

You can play with ad positioning -- and that is well and good and may lead to important discoveries and optimizations -- but for well-structured sites this should not be an issue leading to such large swings.

I think it is good to know that others with high-volume sites are experiencing similar trends -- not good for the owners, but good to know that you are not being singled out or that certain sectors are not being singled out.

I can confirm that Feb. 3 was a huge disappointment in terms of Adsense overall. Page impressions down 47%, Clicks down 50%, CTR down 26%, eCPM down 62%, earnings down 74% from previous day. despite this being a weekday-to-weekday comparison, I believe two things: 1. Monday, Feb. 2 was exceptional, due to the Super Bowl (for me, at least); 2. Tuesday, Feb. 3 was extraordinarily bad, no matter the date. Actual clicks were the lowest in at least 6 months, as were earnings.

Pretty awful, however, Feb. 4 is already a huge improvement, plus, since Feb. 2 was outstanding, this is probably the result of continuing realignment between advertisers, google, searchers. There are big changes going on everywhere. Meanwhile, I am taking an extended vacation, just doing a little work here and there, fixing broken things, not adding much, just watching and waiting until the snow clears and the economy completely crashes (probability over 50% now).

Pretty awful, however, Feb. 4 is already a huge improvement

Not at me, I would call it more a crash.

High traffic, but lower CTR.

The CTR of the sites changed to the new tech stabke, this time crashed the CTR of the unchanged sites.

The day has not ended jet, but it seems 10% below christmas 24th earnings.

The last 2 days have been much lower that normal for me in terms of CTR and eCPM. It's normally very steady indeed, but there has been a very sudden drop from Tuesday morning.

My problem is I don't know if it is the economy in general, or something I have affected from my end. It seems to be too sudden to just be the economy.