Forum Moderators: martinibuster
What will this do to the "standard" websites, those that show images larger than 2 inches wide...will everything go to voice, video, and will people stop reading altogether? Is it realistic to plan long term for adsense-financed websites? For how long?
thanks
I just read an article that says that keyboards, pcs etc are all going to disappear in the next 3 or 4 years, and that everyone will be using the internet on cellphones.
I have never seen a web site on a cell phone for anything useable. Just out of curiosity how it looks like.
I sometimes use a cellphone for speed optimization testing.
I disconnenct my notebook from my normal fast internet connection.
I connect my notebook to my cellphone, delete the internet cache,
take my digital camera for a video.
Than I start loading a web site, documenting the process with a video.
At a normal internet connection, everything goes much to fast to see it. But at a cellphone internet connection, You see in absolut slow motion how part for part of a web site develops on the screen.
You do know the definition of an expert? A drip under pressure:-)
Plus, the deathnell for the mouse is a load of cobblers too!
I have several .mobi sites, they're useless for viewing my trade widget images and since I sell my widget products using representative images, they're not a lot of use apart from giving relevant text information and maybe some pricing.
I've been using an Asus EEEPC for a while and that is definitely as small as I would want to go for Net usage.
YMMV!
[edited by: HuskyPup at 3:19 pm (utc) on Dec. 16, 2008]
It's clear that more and more people are using the internet whilst mobile, but that's the creation of a new market, not the replacement of an old one.
It's clear that more and more people are using the internet whilst mobile, but that's the creation of a new market, not the replacement of an old one.
Exactly. BTW, I read an article the other day (it may have been mentioned here at Webmaster World) that said Netbooks are outselling iPhones. Just as significant, And Amazon's Kindles are sold out until the next version is released in January.
For some Internet applications (even some Web applications), a Web-enabled phone is ideal: e.g., something like a local restaurant or shopping guide in New York City or London, which could display short mini-reviews with addresses on a phone (especially a phone with GPS). But for other applications--those that require extensive reading, like today's NEW YORK TIMES, or those that require writing, like Google Docs--a phone or PDA is almost useless. The Internet and the Web have a lot in common with the broad terms "print" or "radio." Just as print encompasses everything from business cards to WAR AND PEACE, and radio includes anything from wireless devices of all kinds to BBC programming and the SETI project, "Internet" and "Web" are terms that go beyond any one format or type of device.
The phone is useful when on the go and in 3-4 years they may make drastic improvements on speed but visually a cell phone will never beat a PC.
In the 50's the "experts" also said that in a few years, all the movie theaters would be put out of business by TV.
Just like a TV will never beat an actual movie theater experience.
No matter what, until everything is free, there will still be ads!
I just read an article that says that keyboards, pcs etc are all going to disappear in the next 3 or 4 years, and that everyone will be using the internet on cellphones.
Sounds like it was written by someone who is oblivious to the many, many different functions people perform on computers at work and at home.
FarmBoy
And I remember when I was at high school in the 60s that all the experts said that by the 90s we would all be living a life of luxury, no one would hardly work and it would be all play
A business colleague of mine in 1966 said exactly the same thing. Reckoned by 2000 we would probably all be passing our time basket weaving.
Heh! I know of people who work harder and longer today than I ever did as a junior executive in 1966.
I just read an article that says that keyboards, pcs etc are all going to disappear in the next 3 or 4 years, and that everyone will be using the internet on cellphones.
Tell 'em to keep their forum messages short, or they'll need to give up hitchhiking.
When the internet came out, people said that newspapers would soon disappear but they are still pretty popular today.
Yeah, but they're dying a slow death mostly because of the internet
Yeah, but they're dying a slow death mostly because of the internet
And, more specifically, because of a big decline in advertising sales.
Circulation is good only when it's accompanied by commensurate revenues. (Just the other day, there was an article that said NEWSWEEK was considering a sharp cut in its advertising rate base in the hope of keeping CPMs and profits up to par.)
Yeah, but they're dying a slow death mostly because of the internet
I agree that circulation numbers are down but do you think newspapers will be a strong advertising medium for maybe the next 20 years?
The biggest mistake is to think something that is inevitable will happen quickly, rather than to realize that major changes -- even if obvious and inevitable -- will not take full effect for several decades.
In the meantime, other technological changes occur, which influence the manner in which those inevitable changes actually evolve.
The death of traditional newspapers is one case in point, which is just now starting to happen. Newspapers as we know them (printed on vast amounts of paper which is promptly thrown away or recycled) will cease to exist. The only question is how quickly this happens, and how well the key players (owners, editors, reporters) figure out how to deal with this transition.
The biggest mistake is to think something that is inevitable will happen quickly, rather than to realize that major changes -- even if obvious and inevitable -- will not take full effect for several decades.
Good point. Another common mistake is to assume that the new always replaces the old, when the new may coexist with the old and serve a different purpose.
Consider:
- TV hasn't replaced movies.
- Videocassettes and DVDs haven't replaced broadcast and cable TV.
- E-mail hasn't replaced telephones.
In some cases, new technology does largely replace its predecessors: e.g., cars vs. horsedrawn carriages and possibly (in the future) online news vs. printed newspapers. But that tends to be true only when a newer technology or product is a direct replacement for its predecessor. More often, as in the case of e-mail vs. phones or Internet-enabled phones vs. PCs and other large-screen Internet devices, the new technology expands the market (as a previous post in this thread noted) instead of replacing the current market.
The notion that anyone is going to research a thesis, watch Hollywood blockbusters, or plan next summer's vacation to Timbuktu on an iPhone or something similar is pretty farfetched, simply because better devices are available--and will continue to be available--for that purpose. On the other hand, it's reasonable to assume that a lot of people might use an Internet-enabled phone to look for motels down the highway, make restaurant reservations, view sports scores and news headlines, check to see if their lost airline baggage has been found, browse forums while standing in line at the supermarket, watch the "Today" show on the commuter train, or transfer funds from a bank savings account to a debit-card account when they're Christmas shopping downtown or at the mall.
Yeah, but they're dying a slow death mostly because of the internet
I think the slow death of newspapers had already started pre-internet. The internet is one factor that has accelerated the death.
Poor decisions/arrogance on the part of the people who decide what was printed in newspapers led to the beginning of the slow death which led to the decline in advertising revenue which, along with the Internet, hastened the death.
FarmBoy
...new technology does largely replace its predecessors: e.g., cars vs. horsedrawn carriages...
It took several decades to happen and is some third world countries it hasn't happened in large areas.
And even more: I just discovered my need of reading lenses once I bought a wonderful Communicator.
I just discovered my need of reading lenses once I bought a wonderful Communicator.
That comment prompts another example of old and new technologies existing side by side: When I graduated from high school in the 1960s, contact lenses supposedly were going to replace eyeglasses. That hasn't happened, and the latest technology--laser surgery--hasn't replaced glasses or contacts. The market is big enough to embrace all three solutions.
computers and pcs aren't going anywhere. people will still have to work, and you can't do your work on a mobile phone.
Yep. That's why I say the article tells us more about the author than about anything else. I know people who are constantly on their Blackberry and tell me they don't even know why they have a PC anymore - that it's a dinosaur.
Of course these people never compose a letter and print it out, never develop a full sentence beyond "u r hot" , never build a web page, etc.
FarmBoy
In Japan, more people access the internet on mobile devices than on wired ones. AdSense for mobile is incredibly popular with Japanese AdSense publishers, and it's gaining traction in the US and other markets.
Advertisers are also increasingly interested in targeting mobile sites. Google recently announced that we're letting advertisers specifically target the iPhone, for example.
I can't tell you too much about our future plans, but there's even more great stuff coming for AdSense for mobile.
Our Webmaster Help Center has a guide to developing mobile sites [google.com] and the AdSense Help Center has a step-by-step guide to monetizing your mobile site [google.com]. You may find these articles useful if you're interested in joining the mobile revolution. :)
ASA
