It seems most of our adsense revenues are down quite considerably, even the veterans.

Really? I've seen quite a few posts by members who have said it's been their best month yet. I'm somewhere in between: I've had a lower CTR in the last month or so (not surprising, given the current state consumer confidence), but average earnings per click are at record or near-record levels.

Also, if Google truly has you over a barrel, you need to take a closer look at your audience and business model, because you should have other choices besides AdSense if you're able to deliver quality traffic to advertisers. To paraphrase a sermon that others have given here, it's more productive to focus on what you can do to achieve prosperity than to waste time speculating about things that you can't know or control.

It is Google's corporate responsibility to their shareholders to maximize profits, and squeezing publishers would be an important part of carrying that out. Certainly testing what the market will bear is the role of any astute business person.

[edited by: engine at 10:20 am (utc) on Sep. 28, 2009]
[edit reason] See TOS [/edit]

It will be interesting to see Google's financial reports at the end of the year. I suspect that they will report declining or at best flat revenue.

As for those of us with declining revenue, did you really expect not to be effected by the recession? Isn't that a sufficient explanation, without resorting to resentful speculation?

I'm not claiming that Google is any more ethical than any other large corporation, but in this case it just seems unnecessary to me to go there....

Besides efv has much better grooming habits.

I miss that.

I'm not claiming that Google is any more ethical than any other large corporation...

In order to be ethical and fulfill their fiduciary responsibilities to their shareholders they must explore every avenue to increase profitability including changing the payout ratio to publishers where possible. As a Google stockholder I would insist on nothing less. They must not leave money on the table unnecessarily.

Not a theory, corporate law.

Recession seems not to be affecting my earnings, the fluctuations I experience are more an AdSense artifact than traffic or ad quality.

...including changing the payout ratio to publishers where possible.

This assumes that G was foolish enough to leave money on the table before this point in time, and implies they have suddenly smartened-up.

I doubt that.

Google truly has you over a barrel, you need to take a closer look at your audience and business model, because you should have other choices besides AdSense

Agree with that 100%.

We should pack our things and go for alternatives. Yes, we even think about removing ads altogether from our sites without having a suitable alternative. Why not improve the visitor experience and improve the B&M business? Google Adsense performance (for us) has decreased so much that it is just a side dish. Then again, if people indicate that they are not interested in the ads, then we should act.

Thanks, signor_john, for making that clear and opening my eyes.

As to the opinion of the OP - I fully agree, too. We are now hovering around the revenue levels we saw when we joined Adsense in 2005. At that time we had a significant problem with targeting, and revenue improved once Adsense understood what our visitors were interested in. Today, however, the ads ARE targeted already. Well, most of the time. Yet, revenue has been cut back severly.

Especially looking at the eCPM values (i.e. ignoring traffic volume) over time is a sad experience for us. Right now, eCPM is dropping like a rock. As the advertisers are the same and the products are the same and the product prices advertised are the same, I wonder whether the click prices Google is charging are the same? In this case, Google would indeed just take a bigger share. (Also, please note that the Adwords forum is not full of posts from advertisers telling the world how glad they are click prices are dropping like a rock.)

I also miss the point of EFVs grooming habits! Can any one explain?

This assumes that G was foolish enough to leave money on the table before this point in time, and implies they have suddenly smartened-up.

Starting with a more generous package in the beginning to lure all the publishers away from other advertisers would be the best, then once that pool is exhausted the wise move would be to tighten down. But it is hardly necessary to assume that Google makes very few mistakes, the landscape is littered with Google blunders. In fact contextual advertising is the only thing they've done that has made money.

...EFVs grooming habits! Can any one explain?

Requires a refined sense of the absurd, lighten up.

edited for a hasty spelling error

[edited by: OnlyToday at 1:54 pm (utc) on Nov. 11, 2008]

Recession seems not to be affecting my earnings, the fluctuations I experience are more an AdSense artifact than traffic or ad quality.

That being the case, why assume that Google is increasing the size of their share? I don't. My earnings are holding up--if Google is increasing their "bite," why hasn't it affected me?

Answer--they aren't. We are just being affected to different degrees by the recession, just as is happening in the business world generally....

That being the case, why assume that Google is increasing the size of their share? I don't. My earnings are holding up--if Google is increasing their "bite," why hasn't it affected me?
Answer--they aren't. We are just being affected to different degrees by the recession, just as is happening in the business world generally....

There is no hard evidence and there won't be. I'm not willing to lay out a complete analysis of my stats here so your assumption that my conclusion is just an assumption will have to remain that, your assumption.

But if I have made any assumptions here, that one would be that Google acts to maximize their profits coldly and has no bleeding heart for us poor publishers.

...if Google is increasing their "bite," why hasn't it affected me?

Luck, prejudice, self-deception or some other factor that I'm not aware of.

I'm very sure that Google has changed the algorithm which calculates clicks. My CTR has dropped 30% since last Saturday maintenance. Luckily, we'll be pushing our own contextual ads soon.

In order to be ethical and fulfill their fiduciary responsibilities to their shareholders they must explore every avenue to increase profitability including changing the payout ratio to publishers where possible. As a Google stockholder I would insist on nothing less. They must not leave money on the table unnecessarily.

Sure, just like McDonald's has a fiduciary responsibility to let mice run loose in its stores' kitchens to save the cost of an exterminator. Or just like Mercedes-Benz has a fiduciary responsibility not to fix rattles, squeaks, or loose carpeting in final assembly because quality adds costs to the manufacturing process.

But in reality, that isn't how well-run companies work. Unlike many AdSense publishers, Google's honchos are able to look at the bigger picture, and to look beyond the current 24 hours or even the current hour ("It's 10 a.m. and my earnings are down!") That's pretty obvious from the AdSense revenue growth (not just the earnings growth) that we keep seeing in Google's quarterly earnings report.

Fact is, there's any number of reasons why your AdSense revenue could be down--everything from a change in the ratio of supply to demand (due to the recession and the exponential growth of Web sites, blogs, forums, etc.) to evolutionary improvements in the data and tools that are used by Google and its advertisers. One number that you might want to look at is your earnings per click: If EPC is down and nothing else has changed on your site, you may be a victim of the recession, or you might be a victim of your own audience, editorial decisions, and business model. Is there anything that you can do to control your destiny? Venting at Google and your fellow Webmaster World members may be satisfying, but it won't keep you in business.

Google's honchos are able to look at the bigger picture, and to look beyond the current 24 hours or even the current hour

I agree. (For the second time today. What's going on?)

I suspect they have implemented ways to control the earnings levels of individual publishers, e.g. by trying to meet mid-term targets. That's why some are seeing no changes or even increases, while others see huge drops (like myself). This would also explain the huge volatility in daily metrics while averages are surprisingly solid (for us). Average EPC, for example, has been rock solid up to fractions of a Penny for a very long time. Daily values, however, are 100% unpredictable.

This allows the Google honchos (your term, not mine) to plan their earnings for the current quarter. They were caught cold by the economical crisis, however, which is why we are suddenly seeing drastic changes. Must be a drastic change in the mid-term targets.

ratio of supply to demand

This is not a new explanation; this concept has been discussed quite often here at WW, also with senior members. (I know you joined in July, so you probably have not been part of those discussions. If you search the forum archives, you will realize that there are MANY different angles towards this.)

evolutionary improvements in the data and tools that are used by Google

Yep, like counting clicks differently. Maybe they have re-defined what they call a "valid click"? That would be one explanation for the sudden aggressive drop in CTR that some of us are seeing.

you might be a victim of

...Google. You did not mention that one (in your otherwise good list).

Venting at Google and your fellow Webmaster World members may be satisfying

Believe me, it isn't.

I'd just like to have a fully transparent advertising network that lets me tightly control which ads show where on my sites. A network that tells me which ads were clicked and what each click earned. A service that lets me control the minimum EPC, and that tells me which revenue share it took.

I am not seeing any of this with Google, which is why we are thinking about removing Adsense altogether to focus on our B&M business. We have much more control on that end of the stick (and we're not yet seeing a downturn there).

As Zett notes, the Google system isn't transparent, which makes is possible to support completely opposing arguments while arguing from the same information.

We're all convinced we're right, and we've got the data to prove it--only we can't share it without violating the AdSense TOS!

I'm still convinced that the recession is having more of an impact on earning than most of you seem to think, but only time will tell.

[edit--fixed typo]

[edited by: purplecape at 5:36 pm (utc) on Nov. 11, 2008]

I'd just like to have a fully transparent advertising network that lets me tightly control which ads show where on my sites. A network that tells me which ads were clicked and what each click earned. A service that lets me control the minimum EPC, and that tells me which revenue share it took.

Then you don't want AdSense. I've been here (well not here on WebmasterWorld, but dealing with AdWords and AdSense) since the very beginning and before, and I don't recall them ever making those promises or claims for the AdSense program.

AdSense is what it is. It's one of the easiest advertising programs on the planet to implement - you take a snippet of code, format it a little if you want to, and boom - it's off and running, to deliver ads that are supposed to be contextually relevant to your content. You don't have to do any work to find the right advertisers, negotiate the prices, etc. It's all done for you.

In exchange for that, you have to give up a lot of control. Don't like that idea? Then go do the work. Find the advertisers, negotiate the prices. Find another network, add affiliates. It won't be as effortless, and you may or may not make more money, but you'll have all the control you want.

I'm really starting to see the reason why AdSense is called "Webmaster Welfare" (thank you Incredibill)

Then you don't want AdSense. [...] AdSense is what it is.

And I'm not arguing about this one. Of course you are right. That's why we are considering to pull Adsense off our sites. If the years here have told us one thing, then this.

Then again, maybe someone reads these posts (some may see them as complaints, some may see them as inspirations) and starts to build such a system from scratch. Can't be that difficult. And then -I'm dreaming now- publishers are going to break free from the almighty grip of Google, rushing for that better system that treats them as valuable part of the ecosystem and not as dirt that can not be trusted.

That's why we are considering to pull Adsense off our sites.

I actually did pull all of AdSense for 27 full hours because eCPM had tanked. When I returned the ads earnings shot up to near record levels. I suspect, but don't have enoungh data yet, that when my average daily earnings reaches the previous level eCPM will settle down or tank again.

This knowledge is valuable because it means I can run without ads for part of each day without losing money. Because my site without ads will draw many more backlinks and bookmarks...

I am now arranging my includes so switching AdSense on and off will be very easy.

Sure, just like McDonald's has a fiduciary responsibility to let mice run loose in its stores' kitchens to save the cost of an exterminator. Or just like Mercedes-Benz has a fiduciary responsibility not to fix rattles, squeaks, or loose carpeting in final assembly because quality adds costs to the manufacturing process.

You have a way with comparisons signor_john but you make my point with this one. If McDonald's or Mercedes-Benz behaved this way people would just go to Burger King or Lexus.

But AdSense has no reasonable competition so we should expect mice and rattles from them.

[edited by: OnlyToday at 7:03 pm (utc) on Nov. 11, 2008]

But AdSense has no reasonable competition.

That depends on the publisher, and on the size and nature of the publisher's audience.

That depends on the publisher, and on the size and nature of the publisher's audience.

Which is why some of us see no problems. Google with their sophisticated algorithms knows exactly who they can squeeze.

Google with their sophisticated algorithms knows exactly who they can squeeze.

I don't think it's a matter of identifying who can be squeezed; it's more likely to involve predicting the value of a site's traffic to advertisers (something that's done by media buyers in the display-advertising world but needs to be automated in a system like AdWords/AdSense).

It could be either or both john, we're both speculating here. And Google themselves are no doubt testing both hypotheses since both can improve profits.

Blindfolded in a darkened room looking for two black cats that may not (but probably do) exist.