Just getting out of a - I call it..smart pricing cycle..and things are looking normal after two weeks of below normal CTR and EPC. I guess the cycle is different for different publishers..and has to be if they are not to get 'caught' with a pattern.. ;-)

disclaimers used to be at the bottom of posts, now we're starting threads with them, how paranoid are we becoming?

It's you Husky, it's really you!

Tell you what, if I was supposed to be seeing excellent earnings these past few days, then I must have been hit too, for things are looking normal(ish) here.

are you saying that putting disclaimers up on the post helps earnings?

Disclaimer The following post is just my personal view, and nothing else. It reflects my experience with Google's Adsense program. YMMV when reading/using the content of this post.

I noticed a big problem with targeting yesterday and today, mostly for pages that contain established evergreen content and did show 100% matching ads in the past. While the overall ad theme (widgets) seems to be right, the actual topic ("green widgets") of a page seems to only be grasped after a few page refreshes. Instead, Adsense shows just ads for "blue widgets". No wonder CTR is dropping like a rock.

I sometimes wonder what they smoke over at The Plex. I want that, too.

[insert standard disclaimer here]

HP, they were just giving your clicks to me. The last couple of days, my CTR has been up by about a third...

then I must have been hit too, for things are looking normal(ish) here.

You know when something doesn't feel right...that's how I feel now.

All metrics are looking normal except for the actual volume of clicks therefore lower earnings. Without a doubt it was my lowest earning Tuesday in a long, long time which makes it stick out even more.

Call me paranoid:-)

And come back to this thread when it all goes "belly-up"...again...LOL

Yea, my CTR is way down for the first time - well, ever. Seems to have started about the time the arrows appeared on my ads.

zett: it's called weed, seaweed.
Who was it here that started the smartpricing theory about the Google employee shaking seaweed in the plex parking lot?

Husky, I feel your pain, it's like someone squeezing your you know what and it's not you.

So is it a targeting problem or shortage in ad inventory?

Just getting out of a - I call it..smart pricing cycle..and things are looking normal after two weeks of below normal CTR and EPC. I guess the cycle is different for different publishers..and has to be if they are not to get 'caught' with a pattern.. ;-)

I guess we are in the same cycle as HuskyPup, two weeks ago our CTR drop around 30%.

So is it a targeting problem or shortage in ad inventory?

I think both

>>>All metrics are looking normal except for the actual volume of clicks therefore lower earnings.

Speaking of metrics, at least four possible ways to help diagnose:

1. Check your log files and see what keywords your visitors used to access the site. Compare that with previous days.

2. Check your log files and determine what your most popular pages were and compare that to previous days and cross check that with channels to see how well those sections earn historically.

3. Check your log files and determine percentage of visitors were abandoning pages then compare that with historical average.

4. Check your log files and review the click paths visitors were using to go deeper into your site, and how many were actually going deeper. Then compare that with historical averages.

No glitch over here, no slowdown in reporting.

Husky, I feel your pain, it's like someone squeezing your you know what and it's not you.

NO DON'T GET YOU, Hobbs... can you squeeze explain? I mean please explain?

it's your earnings andrew, both of them!

Speaking of metrics, at least four possible ways to help diagnose:

All look completely normal and my ad inventory is great, I don't think I have ever had cause to complain about my ads, and as I said in the original post, my EPC is fine.

Someone mentioned awhile back that they had one extraordinarily high day and one extraordinarily low day a month...fingers crossed that yesterday was it since extrapolating today's metrics and I should be back to normal.

We'll see, and I'm holding on with both hands just in case:-)...the seaweed of course.

Now there could be an explanation! I live on the east coast of the UK and it's been snowing again, well, yes/no?

HP,

It's business as normal for me. Up on last year by the same amount, and the weekly troughs and highs are very consistent.

Are outside of US influences maybe affecting your figures?

Dave

Same old.

p/g

I have just been analysing 4+ years of AdSense metrics and I am seeing, again, a strikingly similar pattern.

My partner is a conspiracy theoretist, I have never been, however I am now beginning to wonder...every time I start to do reasonably well with AdSense, bang, back you go down.

Just why is it that I keep on increasing traffic etc and my earnings are downgraded with much lower CTRs? Quite simply two years ago I was earning double the amount with half the traffic and 20% less EPC!

Why is it that some sites seem to have increasing traffic AND earnings without any reduction in CTR?

In which niches are these seemingly "immune" sites?

Do note that I am not complaining about EPC at the moment however IF this current trend continues, and I do appreciate a few days are not a trend, I shall replace AdSense with My Own Advertising Network...read it, read it:-))

>>>I have just been analysing 4+ years of AdSense metrics...

Now scrutinize 4+ years of log file metrics.

>>>Why is it that some sites seem to have increasing traffic AND earnings without any reduction in CTR?

I think that's the rare exception. Just my opinion, but from watching the ups and downs of my various niches, and the niches of friends and colleagues, it's far common to have wild up and down swings than to have a flat or happily increasing earnings trend.

>>>In which niches are these seemingly "immune" sites?

I doubt there are immune niches.

Judging from this thread it looks like you're having a normal everyday 33% dip, and it's not a systemwide glitch.

There IS no "glitch" and there never was. It was just you insisting that your made-up stats were more valid than what Google was actually measuring.

OMG, a 33% drop in CTR from the average Tuesday! You're still reacting way too extremely to normal random variations in where your traffic comes from, what people are trying to accomplish, and what ads happen to be showing on your site.

As for longterm changes, I won't dispute those, but I doubt there's anything I could tell you about your own users' behaviour that you can't already guess.

reacting way too extremely to normal random variations

Reacting too extremely and normal for who? This is a subjective matter, I don't mind hearing about earning fluctuations, it's one of the reasons I visit this place when things are not well, misery loves company, and even when things are great, it feels good not to be affected, please let it be.

And by the way, if I see a 33% dip, I'll follow Martini's advice (go through my logs), check what ads are on my pages, run to the WSJ & make sure that it's not doom's day yet, then you'll find me here howling at the moon.

Well it's only the third or fourth day for me, but I've never seen CTR so low in four years for this time of year (my site being seasonal) Traffic is way up, EPC is great, the ads look about the same as always, the keywords are all the same as always - but the CTR is unbelievably low. I'm not howling yet, but I'm taking that first deep breath...

netmeg, that's an interesting case. Do you think it's possible the economy is making your visitors hold back on purchases? Here's a related question: Do you consider your visitors the kind of person to be found pushing a shopping cart at Whole Foods or would they more likely be found at WalMart?

I would (and have in the past) accept(ed) that it is due to various random traffic patterns, and all that, except that the TIMING is so perfectly aligned with the end of Q1 for the last 2 years (Mar-Apr 2006, 2007, 2008). Our PPC has repeatedly tended to go up and up and up in Jan-Mar, as if Smart Pricing was relaxed lower, then start a steady slope down Apr through Dec as if SP reduction is slowly cranked up. We were sloping steadily up again this year Jan-Mar, and as soon as Mar ended so did our high PPC, it's now back down by 15% while our traffic is down about 10% due to G SE rank changes... Is there a connection between how G ranks your site and how they set your smart-pricing? I've said yes repeatedly. Coincidently WE ALSO started seeing the ad scroll arrows start appearing right at the beginning of this month, but not necessarily saying they are related.

[edited by: MikeNoLastName at 10:30 pm (utc) on April 10, 2008]

Is there a connection between how G ranks your site and how they set your smart-pricing?

Or could there be a connection between (altered) site ranking and a change in quality of converting traffic?

Scurramunga - that's always my guess. Really analyzing this type of change is nearly impossible. With nearly daily changes in ranking it's quite impossible to alway understand where traffic is coming from.

HuskyPup, I was right there with you back in October with that glitch. I am not affected this time. Mind you I am part of the AdManager beta so maybe that is another part of the equation?

Oh no, here we go again.

With nearly daily changes in ranking it's quite impossible to alway understand where traffic is coming from.

Yes, especially when you also take into account the ebb and flow of changing visitor demographics that can sometimes vary hourly, daily and weekly for certain types of niches (such as mine)

Or Google is testing some tighter clickfraud-detection on some sites:

The clicktracker of one site with fairly constant visitor- and clickpatterns (and also fairly constant SERP positions) reports no changes (just within the usual small range).
Just more of the reported clicks aren't counted by Google.

On average, April 1-6 Google counted 3.9% less clicks than the tracker (also within the usual range).

April 7: 11.5% less
April 8: 13.3% less
April 9: 13.1% less
April 10: 13.6% less

So: my official CTR is down about 10% since Monday.

US income tax deadline a possible cause?