Following the introduction of (not set) into its organic k/w data, Google will gradually but completely remove specific k/w data from GSC / Analytics, perhaps replacing it with 'topics' or augmenting the Pages report in some way.

Percentages of (not set) k/w in Analytics accounts checked today varies from 19 -91% (the effect far more pronounced on smaller sites, the norm is 25-35%)

BTW, this (not set) data is completely absent from GSC. Having checked a number of accounts, the total number of results always differs between the two roughly by the number of (not set) results.

I really like the above post from Whitey. People have been screaming to be able to control & leverage their own data forever now rather than just having it stolen from them & basically used against them.

I also totally agree about the social algorithms & I will go a step further to say the at the algorithmic, non-human curation of content on social & search creates a frustratingly manipulative, undesirable experience for most people. The supposed "personalization" of peoples experience online is largely unwelcome & unhelpful & most people seem to feel that it comes at much too high of a cost in terms of privacy. In my own experience I have not appreciated at all the way I am judged & steered around, having certain things thrown in my face & others completely hidden from me.

I think people would way rather have limited help from from the algorithms & tons of content to wade through than to be manipulated by the algorithms judgement of them & have their hand held online as if they were a lost child with a pocket full of money.

I agree with the above sentiment. It's gotten to the point where it is becoming very intrusive -- I'm sick of Google trying to decide what to force down my throat. For example, I was recently searching for a particular health supplement, and then I found what i needed eventually (through bing, of all places). When I returned to Google to search for a completely unrelated query, I had mixed results and weird combinations of the 2 topics (the one I searched for previously, as well as the new search). I was pretty annoyed, and just wanted to see what was there without "personalization".

The other thing is, I use a home network shared with several other people. When I start doing searches, I realized that those searches start bringing up related ads on the ENTIRE network of computers because they're all connected to the same IP... It is a complete invasion of privacy.

^Hence rise of script and adblockers.

This is NOT to start a side topic on that, just another prediction that the google serps will see some changes as those technologies expand and mature.

emerging trends on search

Devil's Advocate - That Joe Public isn't searching anyway near as much, the amount of times I have overheard the response to "Such and such a question" being "Yeah, I saw it on Facebook", is making me believe the vast majority are being lead precisely by their corporates!

That Joe Public isn't searching anyway near as much

According to comScore, "explicit core searches" were down slightly in November, 2015 compared to November, 2014, but the numbers (17.3 billion compared to 18.8 billion) were only for U.S. desktop search. Add mobile searches to the mix, and I suspect you'd see a noticeable gain.

Sorry for the gloomy predictions, but it's dark and depressing in my niche :-(

- The slow death of the Home PC and Laptop continues , no need for the big bulky computer and Desk except for work.
- Without the PC, even more home time on web goes to mobile
- Even more Mobile time is spent on top 3-5 Apps because especially when it comes to leisure activities, the mobile browser is a horrible experience compared to apps
- The number of global searches on Google continues to decrease as people spend more time, especially leisure time, on Apps
- Google's continues their big push to save the Mobile Browser and Web with AMP
- Publishers who've hated Google for years will take some comfort in the fact that their own slow death is accompanied by Google's

And for social
- Facebook either takes action against the "websites" posting and paying others to post click baiting articles and allows more organic reach for Pages or they see people spending less time on Facebook

(17.3 billion compared to 18.8 billion)

I make that just over 8% which is more than slightly down ... Personally I simply do not see as many people waving their phones around as much as they used to, in fact some people seem to be actually re-learning the art of face-to-face conversation!

When we see Phone Free Zones we'll know there's a real change in he wind. :)

As we head into the final day [ in the US ] of pre Christmas busy-ness, I thought readers and contributors of this thread might want to reflect on what some other leading SEO's are saying.

One SEO I respect is Eric Enge, who is sometimes quoted on WebmasterWorld:

A New Era of ‘Content Effectiveness Optimization’
This is the notion of measuring overall user satisfaction with the pages of your site, and striving to increase that to higher levels.
In Google’s Search Quality Rating Guidelines, for the first time ever, Google introduced the concept of “Needs Met”. This is an evaluation of whether pages returned in the search results actually address the needs of the searchers. It doesn’t take much insight to realize that Google would not be collecting this data (at great expense) if they weren’t making active use of it.

Panda was only the first major algorithm that attempted to measure content quality. Google’s journey down this path is continuing, and I believe they have many ways they try to assess content quality today.

The bottom line? If you can tune your web pages so that more people are satisfied with the experience of your site, chances are good that this will lead to rankings increases for you over time. [momentology.com...] .

Content is a recurring theme in some of the above posts

Another SEO I respect is ex Googler Kasper Szymanski, who has chimed in here a few times in the past with his Google hat on. You'd expect him to have a qualified hunch as to the future.

Speed

Right now an online business’ success in organic Google search is hugely determined by page speed. While this is no news, page speed’s weight as a ranking factor seems to have decisively grown as backlinks lost their importance in recent years. This trend will grow and magnify in 2016.

While minification or gzipping tend to be widely accepted and mostly applied already, developers will now focus on squeezing out the last few percent in order to make sites load uber-fast. HTTP/2, resource preloading and preconnecting are some of the methods that will embraced by the SEO industry and e-commerce community in 2016.

Having said that, SEO remains complex and there are no silver bullets. Speed will be a decisive winning factor in organic search for overall well optimized sites. That inevitably includes great on-page optimization. [momentology.com...] .

So speed loading time is critical - I suppose it has to be now that folks are more on mobile, and coverage is still not great in some areas.

I also picked up on Roger Montti's quote [ our very own mod / martinibuster at Webmasterworld ] adding to his earlier posts here.

When you align your web and mobile strategy to user experience models you will be a good deal ahead toward scoring better on the quality signals that algorithms today are looking for. User experience is deeply embedded in the algorithms of today and no doubt more so in 2016. [momentology.com...] .

Yet more reinforcement that content, speed and mobile are being refined as dominant evolutions.

These insights and others have me thinking that 2016 is a year of rapid evolution, every bit as frenetic as 2015.

The beginning of the collapse of Google as some large sites block its spiders.

Google retires some of its key search people leading to a fundamental change in its search algorithms.

The emergence of vertical and regional search engine companies.

Regards...jmcc

The smaller websites will be squeezed even further, the larger, corporate websites will benefit.

Size really does matter more in 2015 and the 2016 trend will see a continuation of that trend.

For some niches and areas, tablets will become the dominant viewing medium. Google won't realise this as quick as they should because they seem to looking at worldwide trends as far as hardware is concerned. Yes, in India, Russia, China and some other countries the mobile is key, but in Western Europe the tablet will overtake both mobile and desktop in many niches.

Most people in the developed world will carry small magnifying glasses with them in 2016 with the sole purpose of making mobile and some tablet screens appear readable. Some companies will still be trying to develop fold out screens for mobile phones, those companies will finally implode and go out of business in 2017.

And yes, i have heard of graphene. But I think that's for 2019 at the earliest as far as commonly used mobile screen expansion is concerned, if ever. Other technologies seem more likely to provide a solution in the foreseeable future.

Seriously considering blocking the googlebot already. Definitely more bad than good coming frim googles direction already and i predict that trend will continue and worsen.

I'm surprised I haven't seen it mentioned here... but factors of semantic search are becomingly increasingly important, not just for Knowledge Graph results, but as an integral part of organic SEO.

Among other areas... this relates to many aspects of targeting; content; authorship; site structure, development and markup; social media; linking; etc.

Beyond various discussions I've been seeing on these topics in the blogosphere, I'm interpeting Google's change from "Web" to "All" in the SERPs as an indicator...

Google changes "Web" to "All" in verticals on SERPs
https://www.webmasterworld.com/google/4782540.htm [webmasterworld.com]

1) Google will loose market share. I am amazed at the number of keyword referrals showing up in my 3rd party analytics. Duck duck go is also increasing market share.
As the momentum builds for this, there will be a backlash against Google. Over the next five years their market share will erode.
There is a strong underground movement growing that is anti-Google. This will play out in search market share.

Google search has dominated many foreign countries. As much as 90% of the market. But as people become educated they will choose other search engine.
Some will do it to be fashionable.

Google has dominated desktop search for a number of years. But they are vulnerable in mobile search. It's still a brand-new market, and competitors may be able to do better job.
Time will tell. But if you control the mobile network, you may be able to have a significant impact on mobile search.

2) Websites are a larger investment now. Few people will make that investment. Poor quality websites will fall off the radar.

3) We're going back to the 90s, the time before browsers and search engines. Because of Google censorship and other nonsense, people are losing trust in Google.
Curated linked lists, from trusted websites, will become popular. We are seeing this now in certain areas. It will become more popular say in the firearms industry and The antigovernment websites. It will work its way into mainstream. Having a link from a trusted website is an endorsement for a small business.
If I manufacture triggers for ar-14's, a dozen links is worth 10 times more than Google search to me.

4) The Seo industry as we know it will disappear. I know that's a strong statement, but talk to professional Seo's and they will tell you there's already a steep decline and major trust issues.

"The bottom line? If you can tune your web pages so that more people are satisfied with the experience of your site, chances are good that this will lead to rankings increases for you over time. [momentology.com...] ."

This is been true for some time now .

"Having said that, SEO remains complex and there are no silver bullets. Speed will be a decisive winning factor in organic search for overall well optimized sites. That inevitably includes great on-page optimization. [momentology.com...] ."

This is a secret weapon that many webmasters do not understand.

We're going back to the 90s, the time before browsers and search engines.

Huh? I was using browsers and performing SEO in the early 90s way before the usually claimed 1997.

I predict that Google will have to at least give some thought to "native advertising" and how it fits into search results. Should advertorial be given the same weight or authority as editorial? Should a "sponsored content" story on NY Times dot com or Forbes dot com be ranked the same way as a story that was published without payola?

but factors of semantic search are becomingly increasingly important

@Robert_Charlton - a very powerful evolution indeed IMO

There's another factor that is emerging, tied into this. Let's roll the clock back a while to get some perspective on it.

Search grew out of clunky origins relying on search keyword queries matched to keywords in content, prioritised by incoming links that produced a page rank.

Search now relies on "semantic" searching and is way more complex, especially with mobile. There is a whole lot more interactive opportunities for the search process to rely upon to measure the intent of users. Think about it: where you are located , what word combinations you use when speak into your phone ; what get's captured in your email account; what you share with others ; what you type into Google, what you view via your browser etc etc

If you start to be aware of this, you will begin to be aware that potentially the keyboard will be obsolete for some types of searches, and search will become much more automated and intelligent.

Speech recognition is becoming very sophisticated. Recently I made a call to our tax department and they wanted me to register my voice for instant access to my information services. My voice has become a fingerprint.

Eye recognition is now advanced at passport controls and bank teller machines. At some point data will be possible to matched against this. Imagine the implications in search if a screen recognised your intent via your eye.

On top of this, Google and others will be hungry to accelerate the machine learning of their audiences, for marketing purposes.

What this says to me is that semantic search [ mapping the intent of the user to the results ] - is no longer isolated to keystrokes on a computer keyboard. Google search - as it was - can no longer work in isolation on a single user computer. The more connected we are, the more that will be learned about us, and the answers to queries will become even more focused.

Our points of access and contact will be able to predict our intent at train stations, buses, hotels, libraries, cafes, food shopping - we will be getting information wherever we want it and when we want it , and it is going to be way more granular than now - and not all through Google search.

My further 2016 prediction is that semantic search will grow by incorporating a growing stable of technical alternatives that combine in one or multiple places the most personal intentions of the user. I wonder if this is something behind the thinking of the "Brain" project and what Google thinks of this strategically for controlling the universe. Interesting times.

Star Wars - The Force Awakens is starting to seem a bit "retro - antiquated" [ even if I did enjoy it ] - compared to this future.

Should advertorial be given the same weight or authority as editorial? Should a "sponsored content" story on NY Times dot com or Forbes dot com be ranked the same way as a story that was published without payola?

Highly unlikely any of the above will "rank" given the new FTC ruling just out: [webmasterworld.com...]

Whitey, yes, the implants may be coming. ;) As I'm sure you know, all sorts of input and output devices have already been incorporated into search, and, yes, the use of those will grow. Ditto with output devices. Image and speech recognition technologies and geo-spatial search are applicable more in mobile than in desktop.

User personalization, query refinement, search history, already provide further suggestions of intent, and those will increase. Some systems are likely to become like Google Now on steroids. Augmented reality (and "virtual" reality displays) will increasingly be added to search output. Artificial Intelligence/ machine learning is being used now, and will continue in whatever version of the "Brain" we're on now.

I tried not to get into whole issues of the internet of things, but yes, in many cases the output devices of search... however you want to define "search"... might interface between us and virtual and mechanical devices and control systems. Some of this might happen next year. Some might be in five years or never.

Many experts in augmented reality have strongly emphasized that the "social contract" part of data personalization has yet to be worked out on a satisfactory societal level, and I agree. It's been a contentious issue on this forum.

Just to be clear, though, I've pretty much confined my discussion of "semantic" to its generally understood basic meaning... to the meaning of words, which can disambiguate entities and help identify intent in queries.

I think that's where we as webmasters or marketers can do the most to provide useful input in what we do. I'd be careful not to conflate semantics with other factors.

Yes, of course, spoken language needs to be parsed as does keyboard input... and yes, geo-location serves as a powerful source of meta-data which are already used in all types of search. Many of the other areas you describe are already happening or are likely to happen, but those applications may be either in closed systems or in infrastructures that we ourselves won't be building. I hope that distinction makes sense. These can be subtle areas, and for SEO, since you invoke my name, I think it's not productive to fuzz them over.

Imagine the implications in search if a screen recognised your intent via your eye.

Once iris recognition becomes economically scalable, it will undoubtably be used as the method of choice for high security identification. The reliability observing the eye for determining intent, though, is currently the subject of some contention, and my guess is that if it ever happened, it would not be in 2016.

The reliability observing the eye for determining intent, though, is currently the subject of some contention, and my guess is that if it ever happened, it would not be in 2016.

2016 may be a bit soon... agreed. But with security through browsers improved I can see all sorts of data coming online, that was previously not accessible - e.g. the tax, and passport services. Although these secure services may not have identifiable needs in public search areas, I just wonder if other usages may occur as innovators consider it's application.

Google glass may have been premature - there were not enough positive features to get people across the line at the time. Build on that with a lot more things and it could happen again, in a more advanced device.

All they would need is permission [ perhaps two forms of identification - eye and voice ] - and login may not be required with personal search instant. Users activating voice may combine it with key strokes - and potentially eye movement with eyewear. I'm getting ahead of myself - but there are some smart people out there pushing the boundaries, and the wave can move fast.

I guess in the context of SEO, keeping webmasters minds open on content and architecture that is contemporary and friendly to users that Google can index, is, without saying, a must, whilst keeping an eye on, and anticipating developments in the technical evolution cycles as early as possible if they represent a trend.

Whitey, I guess I didn't really make it clear what really is bugging me about what you posted.

You wrote...

What this says to me is that semantic search [ mapping the intent of the user to the results ] - is no longer isolated to keystrokes on a computer keyboard....

What bothers me is that the above is not what semantic search is.

If you had just begun the above section with: "Mapping the intent of the user to the results is no longer isolated to keystrokes on a computer keyboard"... and had not equated the broad range of such mappings with semantic search... I probably wouldn't have commented on what followed. Nothing wrong with thinking ahead. I've been saying for years that Google is building a multi-dimensional model of the universe... so we're likely in basic agreement.

The issue, though, is that by conflating what semantic search is with what it isn't... you fuzz over what it is. There are lots of different determinants of intention, but they are not all semantic search, nor is semantic search necessarily any of them.

PS: Though this sounds interesting, this too is not what semantic search is...

My further 2016 prediction is that semantic search will grow by incorporating a growing stable of technical alternatives that combine in one or multiple places the most personal intentions of the user.

There is much that I think we all need to learn and do about semantic search to improve site performance in future search... as I noted, everything from targeting to structure, content, markup, linking, etc. And thus my concern.

Eye scans? Maybe don't blink too much in airports or interviews until they nail it down. ;)

Highly unlikely any of the above will "rank" given the new FTC ruling just out

The FTC guidelines don't prohibit native advertising. They merely require adequate disclosure.

So my prediction stands: With major online publications (even respected ones like The New York Times) publishing "native advertising" and other "sponsored content" that can be crawled and index like editorial text, Google may at least give some thought in 2016 to how "native advertising" should fit into search results. Already, I occasionally see "sponsored content" show up in Google News results, though not very often (and presumably not intentionally on Google's part).

Side note: Proper disclosure should make it easier for Google to filter "native advertising" and the like from its search result, since it can't be that hard to scan for terms like "Advertisement" or "Sponsored Content." The greater challenge is to identify advertorial when it isn't properly disclosed.

No ones talking about Bing so I suppose I'll start. I think Bing will become a real competitor(not that it isn't already) to Google as more and more people start using Windows 10(where almost everything is defaulted to Bing). This is great IMO, more competition the better. Its not good for anyone if Google continues to have such a giant piece of the search market pie. And this might be a farfetch but I predict Yahoo to start leaving the search game.

No ones talking about Bing

Well, this is a forum about Google. :-) Seriously, though, the fact that a general thread about search trends in 2016 is located in Webmaster World's Google SEO News and Discussion forum does tell us that, even at Webmaster World, most people equate "search" with "Google."

As for whether Windows 10 can push Bing down searchers' throats, I'm skeptical. That approach hasn't worked terribly well for Microsoft in the past.

True but I think as more and more people start using Cortana, it'll definitely get more users.

Not to mention all the privacy issues with Google that are being brought up, it'll lose more users to competitors like DDG.

No ones talking about Bing so I suppose I'll start. I think Bing will become a real competitor(not that it isn't already) to Google as more and more people start using Windows 10(where almost everything is defaulted to Bing). This is great IMO, more competition the better. Its not good for anyone if Google continues to have such a giant piece of the search market pie. And this might be a farfetch but I predict Yahoo to start leaving the search game.

I would have to agree that Bing is stepping up their game. Maybe that's part of the reason why Google has lost users in the USA year over year according to recent news (see [news.softpedia.com...] )

Not to mention all the privacy issues with Google that are being brought up, it'll lose more users to competitors like DDG.

Agreed x2. As more people become aware of how much Google profiles their users, people will look to regain some of their privacy.

I think Google will continue with there "no respect for Site owners content" practice, example I made a experiment with Google Image, if you have a code so that the user does not see full resolutions on google image you have lets 1000 visits, as soon you remove that, which you are forced to by google, you will get 600 visits, that could lead some to block google image complete, its just of no value.

I also see that duckduckgo.com has got a lot better over time and I must say I now use it 95% of the time for any search and it has given me even better results than google, also you dont get all those ads or google content.

Im not sure, but could it be that search all in all will be less, be cause of apps. Means that google search maybe will over time not have any value, Im not sure here.

Apps just might be the unhinging of all things. We'll see in 2016. Bing growth as folks shy/abandon G for non production (perceived, but is a non production of revenue). The FTC intrusion re: blended ads and other sleights of hand advertising ( [webmasterworld.com...] ) will also come in play. Might be an interesting year!