Nope, no lines on them, purely cynical assumptions. If they are experts, by definition they must have industry experience.
And EUC is not about to appoint ex-Googlers.
There is a clear precedent with the MS fine, bundling apps with an OS irrespective of the hardware. As @jmcc observes, if you plan to whack someone with a second fine, you better have your bases covered.
I'm surprised Apple are scot free, when both MS and Google have been investigated for this exact issue, when Apple are easily the most draconian in terms of "ecosystem" management. On the other hand, as their OS is tied to hardware, the entire thing is a "device" and no trade suppliers or customers are involved.
Anyway, on-topic:
- Android leverages its OS to bundle Apps, which are encouraged, if not forced
- Google controls App access on Play
- Bundling Apps reduces the incentives to innovate, due to consumer inertia
- Google Apps are as much a "supplier" to the OS as Shopping is to SERPs
So, on EUC's revealed MO, I can't see Google getting the outcome they want.
Taking that a step further- whatever portion of SERPs users then use Shopping, I can't see it being anywhere close to 50%.
On the other hand, probably >90% of android users end up using a Google app, because it's there. If you find them guilty, the subsequent distortion must therefore be found to be substantially greater than in SERPs/Shopping.