We know that the Viacom vs. Youtube case has been heating up this week (after three long years of waiting), and a decision can be expected this year.

Now, I'd be genuinely interested in your opinion on two things:

(1) How will the court decide, and why?

(2) How will this decision affect Youtube, Google, and the web?

I am interested in opinions for either side of the battle. I think it will be interesting to read what experienced web folks think about the future of the web, following the court ruling. (If alone for the reason to be able to point to this thread in a few years and say, "see, told you so!")

And I'll begin with my replies to the questions above.

(1) How will the court decide, and why?

Viacom will win. The evidence presented indicates that both Youtube and Google knew exactly what they were doing in terms of "accepting infringing activity on their service". But they wanted the eyeballs and looked away.

(2) How will this decision affect Youtube, Google, and the web?

Youtube will be shut down. This will be the first real crisis at Google. Zillions of copyright holders will appear to squeeze the last dime from Youtube, and -more importantly- from Google. The money drain may be so massive that Google may not be able to fund all their non-core businesses. They may decide to retreat to just search, Adwords, and mobile, and get rid of 70-80% of their staff.

Since a big part of their growth story will be gone overnight and in the light of the lawsuits, GOOG will drop seriously, probably even below $100.

Possibly, Google Video will be re-opened since this does still exist and was never much of a problem. Then again, as it is not a core business, they might decide to close this one as well. Maybe Google decides to buy a media company to finally have some legal content. Lots of deals with media companies at good rates (for the media companies).

The effect on the web will be dramatic. It will be known as the end of the Web 2.0 bubble. Suddenly big UGC sites will be the target of lawsuits, and these companies will also lose serious money and many will go out of business. Users will cry and complain that the beautiful Web 2.0 bubble bursts, but sites will tell them to take it or leave it.

The result of the dot-com bubble (2000/2001) was an increased focus on profitability (before this anyone could launch anything and receive insane valuations). The result of the Web 2.0 bubble bursting will be a focus on legal compliance combined with profitability. I think many companies will be dying, which -per se- is not a bad thing, because it opens room and resources for new startups that generate a profit in a legal way.

Ah, but now on to you. :-)