I've tried being productive on my mobile phone, and that was just jotting ideas and notes. Didn't work out so good. I spent more time correcting fat fingers and typos than actually getting my ideas down.

Desktop computers won't disappear, unless we reach some type of hard limit on a hardware resource and notebooks catch up to that limit. Don't forget about the gamers who are quick to adopt the latest desktop advancements.

I think a majority of the mobile masses are very new to the depths of computer technology, and look at it in a completely different way than those who built their entertainment and productivity on latest and greatest desktop technology.

G$$ replies on a deadend business model, too.

The radio did not kill the newspaper. The TV did not kill the radio. The internet did not kill the TV. Phones are not going to kill the desktop.

Radio?

Pandora and Sirius are my radios when not listening to MP3s.

People still listen to regular radio? Wow.

Newspaper?

I haven't had a newspaper delivered for more than 10 years since the news was available on the internet.

TV?

Isn't all TV on demand via websites like Hulu, the broadcast channels site, or Comcast OnDemand when not playing back from DVR?

I've rarely watched live TV since we got the first TiVo over 10 years ago.

Therefore, as more people follow similar patterns the Internet is killing everything.

Cell Phones are assisting now that we can watch TV, listen to music/radio, or read news over the cell phone.

They won't kill the desktop, but everyone will have one and use it all the time.

SmartPhone will be the most ubiquitous multi-purpose computer ever produced.

...just jotting ideas and notes. Didn't work out so good. I spent more time correcting fat fingers and typos than actually getting my ideas down.

The voice recognition is much faster or if you don't have Android, just use a voice recorded and transcribe your notes later if needed.

People forget that speech and camera are two major input devices on cell phones.

Comcast OnDemand when not playing back from DVR?

what is a DVR? its a desktop in a DVR shell, my windows media center contorls all my digital entertainment...and its built out of desktop parts.

same goes for windows home server which provides remote access into the house, backup of all computers on the home network and a list of many other things... oh yea thats a desktop too just with a "home server" name.

if anything I now have more desktop hardware in my house then i ever had before.

smartphones replacing the desktop is pure rubbish talk since years. notebooks replacing the desktop is absolutely true. more then ever in the private sector folks are going laptop/notebook, even professional gamers.

analysts tend to forget what's really important for the people in terms of replacing devices.

a notebook can relatively easy replace a desktop, because there are few disadvantages to accept. but when it comes to smaller devices such as smartphones, there is naturally a much bigger trade-off. so smartphones have to serve a different need to compensate the constructional flaws. but if they serve a different need, they consequently are no substitutes. that's the whole point.

when is a device really a full-blown mobile device? the main questions are:

a) acceptable screen size and processing power: does it get the necessary tasks done without hassle?
b) acceptable dimension: does it fit in my pocket?

if one of the questions is not answered sufficiently, no personal need for that gadget. so you see the trouble with the ipad. it doesn't fit in your pocket, so it's no truly mobile device. you also see the trouble with a conventional smartphone: the dimensions are too small to conveniently replace work at a computer. so you have to ask yourself: does it have enough additional benefits to be worthwhile? the main benefits would either be to be genuinely mobile or to satisfy specific requirements.

To sum up: yes, the desktop will suffer because of the laptop, but not because of the smartphone. a smartphone is neither a substitute for a desktop, nor for a laptop. it serves different needs and purposes. so it's complementary.

J_RaD -

You read my mind. I listen to music played by my PC, I'm awaiting the day when my PC will control not record programs but completely control my television.

I think it's safe to say "everyone" will have a smart phone five years from now, but the desktop will be far from dead.

get a tuner card and a windows media center remove and your computer will control your TV 100% media center even has a hulu plugin...im actually watching hulu right now!

and before that i had my xbox360 controller plugged in the USB and was playing games downloaded from steam just like you would on a console.

so my desktop has replaced a DVR - a blueray player - a console - a media tank... and i can still use it as a computer with my wireless keyboard from the couch

what is a DVR? its a desktop in a DVR shell

Not exactly, it's an appliance like a PS3 or a Wii.

It has dual or quad tuner capability, plug 'n play, does a specific function.

I have a tuner card in my PC but I certainly don't want my desktop and home entertainment center all intertwined. Not to say that I don't watch TV or movies via Netflix in a window on my PC now and then, but it's for my personal use, not the whole family.

Who wants the family to come pummel you because you decided to update Windows during American Idol (or American Idol being recorded) and you rebooted to complete the process and lost part of the show.

No thanks.

There are some things that will just take time to disappear (if they ever disappear). Here's a list of things people claimed would disappear with the invention of new technology:

- paper-based payroll and personal checks
- land line telephones
- radios
- wrist watches
- gasoline/petrol powered cars
- books (paperback and hard cover)
- desktop computers

None of these are going anywhere any time soon.

Here's a list of things that have either disappeared, or they are currently on their last leg:

- cassette tapes
- microfilm/microfiche
- VHS tapes
- vinyl records (still used by some rap/hip-hoppers for scratching/mixing, but not for listening)

Here's a list of things that have either disappeared, or they are currently on their last leg:

You missed:

Cathode ray tube based TVs and computer monitors
Plasma TVs (energy hogs? love mine)
CD changers (MP3 killed 'em)
Zip disks (iomega, anyone use them?)
CDs (higher volume DVDs rapidly replacing)

Slightly off the tangent...

Regular counter-depth fridge, freezer on top, with ice maker, under $1K - extinct.
To get something counter-depth now costs about $2K minimum.

Crazy.

incrediBILL - you're thinking today - not five or ten years from now. Hopefully we won't be rebooting computers in 2020. :)

You'll also have 32 cpu rigs that will be able to handle all the multitasking you can throw at them.

I see the "smart phone" as a return to what started computers in the first place: DUMB TERMINALS under a single control connected to a centeral (as in not de-centralized) computing space. That's what the "cloud" is... a return to the old ways of doing things. And an assumption by the powers that be that the average user is an idiot.

And a way to charge for every access.

Coming soon to a "terminal" near you...

Desktops have at least two major advantages over mobile devices - they have an easier to use and more functional keyboard, and you can actually read small print without having to scroll the page several times.

If they fix all that for mobile devices... then you would have a mobile desktop.

and they are also assuming that people will prefer smaller and more mobile devices... but why should that be?

why would people prefer to do their work on mobile devices? work is typically a stationary thing, in the same place. like watching the telly. people can get telly programs on mobile devices too, but that doesn't mean they are going to chuck away the big telly in their front room. and its the same with the big computer in your study, or office.

just because you can make something smaller and more mobile, doesn't mean that people will automatically prefer it to their bigger cousins.

I can see them all at the -plex- now, riding unicycles and skateboards, hopping around on pogo sticks, and sucking chili through a straw while thumbing the next wave of the future with their teeny-tiny cell phones, etc. I suppose they'll just have to make people smaller in the next few years.

Who wants the family to come pummel you because you decided to update Windows during American Idol (or American Idol being recorded) and you rebooted to complete the process and lost part of the show.

No thanks.

its fun to make jokes at windows but thats not how it works anymore.

not only can you be recording a show and watching another you could be drop ripping a dvd and streaming content all around your house to other computers or media extenders.

This thread gave me a flashback to my first dial up computer...

Connecting to AOL where everything I accessed was a part of AOL. If I searched for something on the web it was an AOL listing.

IMHO Desktops/Laptops will not vanish...They will just be used for more in-depth applications that a mobile device can't accommodate. Student's will still use workstations to write papers and conduct research.

Mobile devices will be the primary device for a simple specific task or to gather specific information.

I think the frustrating part is the fact that mobile offers a controlled environment that makes it more difficult to market your site if its not well known. Hardware manufacturers have the ability to say what can and can not be displayed on their device, and you have to go through their channels. I might be wrong on this part.. but its my fear!

its fun to make jokes at windows but thats not how it works anymore.

Funny, I just installed Windows updates the other day and it required rebooting.

I'm sure that's how it still works.

not only can you be recording a show and watching another you could be drop ripping a dvd and streaming content all around your house to other computers or media extenders.

I know how it works, I've got that gear, it's just OK.

However, my actual DVR has a multiple tuners and records multiple channels concurrently and who needs DVDs unless it's a BlueRay movie to watch from Netflix.

However, much of this is already moot as Comcast OnDemand is supplying most of the movies and TV shows available any time without the need for the DVR and most of the rest can be viewed online from their broadcast channel site or Hulu.

Best of all, my appliance DVR doesn't stop recording when I reboot Windows to complete installing Windows updates. ;)

The trending towards "on demand content" means the DVR as a metaphor for the desktop, is probably also a dead end platform.

I don’t think desktop will disappear, but will become a minor device. I always believed that Google wants to get in to the phone market because that’s where most of the internet usage will be.

We need more research on the effects of 3G/4G wireless devices, base-stations on human and living creatures around us. Hope, Google will invest to make them more safe.

Just a side note, I prefer to turn on the 3G card of my netbook as I need the connectivity, and leave it off during programming or reading etc. This saves battery, reduces radiation, lowers load on the network. If that results a long life, I will report it to the forum :-)

consume information and entertainment

So, we're consumers now? Is that what we are? Of information and entertainment? Well then, how is it then, that all that information and entertainment that we supposedly *consume* is still around? And it keeps on being there, even growing, no matter how many people "consume" it?

That model is just wrong. Information, by it's very nature, can't be consumed. Only shared.

In Japan, most research is done today ...

In Japan, the people are generally much smaller/lower than the average American/European. With that comes smaller hands. This is not insignificant. In fact it explains why a handset is so much more convenient there, and so little convenient here. That difference will not likely go away anytime soon.

Googles talks on mobile sound more like a threat than a promise.

That's because of what they *don't* say among all the hype. Their real motivation is probably that a handset has:

(1) Unique personal ID
(2) Built in billing
(3) Built in payment
(4) Walled gardens are easy to make (Think AOL pre-www)

Mobile Internet equals Pay-Per-View Internet

In three years time, desktops will be irrelevant

Well, we've heard that before, a million times or more. We've had notebooks now for ages. We've had thin clients now for ages. We've had sub-notebooks, netbooks, and even cellphones with MS windows on them for... ages again.

For any task with a duration more than a few minutes a desktop can't be beat. For work, a desktop can't be beat. People will keep on wanting large keyboards, large screens, CPU, and non-cloud software that they can customize and integrate with their business systems. And games - don't forget the huge gaming market... multi-player shoot-'em up just dont feel right on a 2 inch screen.

IMHO, Google is wrong. But not the first to be so, and not the first to be so saying these exact same things.

I forgot to mention one thing... on-line cell-phone usage is extremely expensive, no matter if you count per minute or per kB as compared to laptop or desktop use (often flatrate)

I've said before google is going after being the modern AOL. Except this time they have great PR and its users will run to the idea with joy instead of being disgusted. Remember when you used to show your AOL friends the "real" internet.... its getting to be that way with google. we will have googweb and internet.

Read it again, please.
He said "consumption of information and entertainment" not "working".

Personally, I only read news on my mobile phone when eating lunch, driving or waiting in line.

Professionals are going to need full sized PCs for a long time to come.

But what about everyone else?

Having a bunch of computer professionals that need horsepower trying to decide what the masses will use is the folly of this particular discussion.

We need power house PCs, most people don't.

Bill I think we should use the term ´ keyboard junkies ´ when refering to those that belong to forums such as this one!


A shocking stat stats from Spain:

There are more mobil hand sets that people.