Depending on the gTLD and the registry the domain may be systematically moved to an affiliated auction entity, i.e., "no drop catching". At auction there may be bidding, simply to park the domain, based upon link=traffic data.

If you believe there's litigation then you may want to search various legal filings databases for the name(s) of the interested parties. Could be a direct contest between domain parties OR part of a divorce proceeding.

Check the same name(s) in available death records. IF the domain/business is viewed as part of an estate then it;s death records->place of death->country official in charge of wills and estates->identify lawyer for estate->outreach.

[edited by: Webwork at 3:29 pm (utc) on Mar 19, 2023]

wheel(welcome back),

Look at who owns(used to) an A Record at the point(domain + IP). From there find Registry. From there research how often domain has been renewed and at what periods were those. This might give you a glimpse into how things worked before...

-- Chuck Norris does not sleep, he waits...

@wheel ... any updates on this?

Info online is a bit wiggly and a bit inconsistent but...
I think this is what Godaddy is doing automatically when the domain drops just for security. They've locked it up tight for I assume 30 days and if not redeemed, it'll go to auction. So, basically just like a typical domain drop but with Godaddy locking the domain down during that 30 days.

Perhaps they do this with all domains that drop, perhaps they have a metric that tells them to add this extra level of lockdown on the domain for 'more valuable' domains.

Right now the domain is still showing expired but all locked up. Nothing's changed. Which lends credence to my expectation as to what they're doing. As I posted above, I don't expect that there's any legal shenanigans going on. Best guess is, it's just a drop but with added godaddy nonsense. I've added a reminder at the end of the 30 days to have another look.

Bonus question, why, after I've been offering cash for this domain for probably longer than 10 years, would they just let it drop. Not really a question, people are just funny. I picked up a 100% keyword rich domain for $800 in an auction about 15 years ago, back when keyword rich was huge in SEO. I remember running up the stairs and hollering to my spouse "I just got domainname.com for $800!". That one was crazy too, I still don't know who owned it or why it dropped, it was easily worth 5 figures just for the name. And a heluva lot more than that when I ranked it and sold it :).

what Godaddy is doing

I recently had good results with one of GoDaddy's domain brokers, who managed to acquire a domain I had been watching for two or three years. It was renewed on the very day I hoped it would expire, presumably on auto renew.. The broker managed to acquire it for me. within my budget. The situation was different than yours, but still, the broker might be a route to consider.